隨著時代的變化，企業面對需求的不確定性以及生產成本上漲的壓力，逐漸將生產活動移至海外進行，將生產好的產品行銷至當地國家或是出口回母國或第三國家，使近年來全球的外人直接投資金額大幅成長。理論上，外人直接投資可以透過這樣的方式對接收國的出口有所貢獻，而外人直接投資所帶來的技術外溢效果也能使接收國的廠商增進自身的生產效率與產品品質，進而增加出口，然而在實證的文獻上，並非所有的接收國都能從外人直接投資獲得潛在的好處。因此，本文使用接收國的吸收外來技術能力會影響外人直接投資外溢效果的論點，解釋接收國技術吸收能力之因子─「金融部門的發展程度」，可能是影響外人直接投資對出口成長貢獻的重要因素。本文主要假設為一國之金融部門發展必須達到一定程度才能使該國能夠吸收及運用外人直接投資所帶來的技術外溢效果，否則，外人直接投資對接收國的出口成長沒有貢獻。本研究期間為1981年至1997年，56個國家及28個產業。實證結果如下：1.	在未考量金融部門發展下，外人直接投資對透過金融部門對外部融資需求高的產業出口成長有不利的影響。2.考量金融部門發展後，外人直接投資對透過金融部門對外部融資需求高的產業能刺激出口的成長。3.以不同國家別做為樣本時，開發中國家的外人直接投資透過金融部門對外部融資需求較高的產業出口成長有較好的刺激效果，特別是開發中的亞洲及拉丁美洲地區，外人直接投資透過金融部門對產業出口成長的影響較為明顯而且穩健。4.在穩定性檢測下，以全部國家為樣本的實證結果，不會因改變外人直接投資的衡量方式或是金融部門發展的衡量方式而有所不同，具有一定的穩健性，然而，若區分國家別的資料進行分析，則不同的股市發展指標可能會影響實證結果的顯著性。

In recent years, the amount of global foreign direct investment (FDI) has grown greatly. Theoreti-cally, inward FDI of multinational enterprises could positively affect the export of host country by ex-porting locally produced goods back to home countries or other countries. However, empirical evidence from previous studies shows that not all countries receiving inward FDI will gain such benefits. In this study, we adopt the viewpoint that the absorptive ability of host country could affect the spillover effect of FDI to show that the degree of financial department is critical for FDI to exert a positive impact on the export growth of the host country. The data used for this study contains 56 countries for the period of 1981 to 1997 and the main findings of this research are as follows:1.Without considering financial development, the impact of FDI on industrial export growth, through industrial external finance, is negative.2.After considering financial development, the impact of FDI on industrial export growth, through in-dustrial external finance, is positive.3.In the developing country group, the impact of FDI on industrial export growth via financial devel-opment is more robust. More specifically, the impact of FDI on industrial export growth is more clear and robust in the Asian and Latin American countries.4.The result for the full countries sample is robust even we change the measurements of FDI or finan-cial development. However, the results for different country groups are not that robust when we change the measurement of financial development.

目錄
第一章 緒論------------------------------------------------1
第一節 研究背景--------------------------------------------1
第二節 研究動機及目的--------------------------------------1
第三節 研究架構--------------------------------------------3
第二章 文獻回顧--------------------------------------------6
第一節 外人直接投資定義------------------------------------6
第二節 外人直接投資對出口影響------------------------------7
第三節 接收國的吸收能力會影響外人直接投資的外溢效果--------9
第四節 外人直接投資與股市發展之關係-----------------------10
第三章 研究方法與實證模型---------------------------------15
第一節 理論架構-------------------------------------------15
第二節 實證模型-------------------------------------------16
第四章 資料來源與變數建立---------------------------------19
第一節 樣本說明-------------------------------------------19
第二節 變數定義及資料來源---------------------------------21
第三節 變數的敘述統計與描述-------------------------------26
第五章 實證分析結果與意涵---------------------------------42
第一節 主要實證結果---------------------------------------42
第二節 穩定性檢測-----------------------------------------47
第三節 總結分析結果及其意涵-------------------------------49
第六章 結論與建議-----------------------------------------60
第一節 結論-----------------------------------------------60
第二節 政策建議-------------------------------------------61
參考文獻--------------------------------------------------63


圖表目錄

圖1.1. 外人直接投資流量流入金額(百萬美元)------------------4
圖1.2. 外人直接投資流量佔世界流量之比例--------------------4
圖1.3. 研究架構--------------------------------------------5
圖3.1. 外人直接投資透過股市發展對出口成長的影響機制(一)---18
圖3.2. 外人直接投資透過股市發展對出口成長的影響機制(二)---18
圖4.1. 開發中國家的外人直接投資流量金額(百萬美元)---------30
表 4.1. 總樣本國家(56個)----------------------------------29
表 4.2. 開發中國家(34個)----------------------------------30
表 4.3. 實證模型變數定義匯總表----------------------------31
表 4.4. 全部國家之敘述統計--------------------------------32
表 4.5. 已開發國家之敘述統計------------------------------33
表 4.6. 開發中國家之敘述統計------------------------------34
表 4.7. 開發中之亞洲及拉丁美洲國家之敘述統計--------------35
表 4.8. 開發中的非亞洲及拉丁美洲國家之敘述統計------------36
表 4.9. 重要的國家別資料-外人直接投資---------------------37
表 4.10. 重要的國家別資料-金融部門發展指標----------------39
表 4.11. 重要的產業別資料---------------------------------41
表 5.1. 全部國家之OLS估計結果-----------------------------51
表 5.2. 已開發國家之OLS估計結果---------------------------52
表 5.3. 開發中國家之OLS估計結果---------------------------53
表 5.4. 開發中國家-亞洲及拉丁美洲國家之OLS估計結果--------54
表 5.5. 開發中國家-非亞洲及拉丁美洲國家之OLS估計結果------55
表 5.6. 不同外人直接投資衡量方式之OLS結果-----------------56
表 5.7. 不同外人直接投資衡量方式之2SLS結果----------------57
表 5.8. 不同金融部門衡量方式之OLS結果---------------------58
表 5.9. 不同外人直接投資與不同金融部門衡量方式之2SLS結果--59

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