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系統識別號 U0002-0307200811404600
中文論文名稱 民意對美國政治之影響---以1968年越戰之新春攻勢為例
英文論文名稱 The Impact of Public Opinion on American Politics-A Case Study of Tet Offensive,1968
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 美國研究所碩士班
系所名稱(英) Graduate Institute of American Studies
學年度 96
學期 2
出版年 97
研究生中文姓名 趙五鼎
研究生英文姓名 Wu-Ting Chao
學號 694220129
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
口試日期 2008-06-19
論文頁數 115頁
口試委員 指導教授-陳一新
委員-包宗和
委員-黃奎博
中文關鍵字 新春攻勢  民意  理性行為者模式  詹森 
英文關鍵字 Tet offensive  public opinion  Rational Actor Model  Lyndon B. Johnson 
學科別分類 學科別社會科學區域研究
中文摘要 越戰從1965年升高至1975年美軍撤出,所費10年。在這10年中,民意之表現有日漸激烈之趨勢,不僅舉辦多場示威遊行活動,更於1968年發生數起衝突事件。民意對越戰的不滿急速上升起因於新春攻勢 (Tet Offensive) 之爆發。1968年1月30日凌晨由北越所發動之新春攻勢成為越戰關鍵戰役之一。新春攻勢前美國政府對民眾信心喊話,表示越戰情況樂觀,美軍將邁向勝利。但是,新春攻勢的發生打破政府所掩蓋的真相。經由媒體的報導將當地駁火的畫面傳回國內,改變民眾對於越戰的觀感。新春攻勢後,美國國內對越戰的反彈升高。不僅民意的不滿逐漸高漲,媒體也大肆發表對越戰悲觀的評論,加上長年因為戰爭花費導致經濟損耗,以及南越情勢持續不穩。最終使得詹森總統於1968年3月31日在電視公開演說中發表將停火以求和談,並且不再競選總統連任之決定。
本論文針對民意對美國政治與外交政策三者之相互關係作為研究重點。除了對越戰背景以及新春攻勢前後之情勢做簡單陳述外,主要以蓋洛普 (George H. Gallup) 之民意調查來顯示1965至1968年民意之轉變。此外,本論文以民意為變數,用艾理遜 (Graham T. Allison) 教授決策模式之理性行為模式來檢視詹森於1968年3月31日所作之決定。希望可以藉由理論之檢驗,證明民意在決策過程中確實影響決策者。
本論文的主旨在於,雖然在冷戰的氛圍下,美國必須堅守其承諾並提防「骨牌理論」(Domino Theory) 對東南亞國家所引發的赤化效應;但是,在新春攻勢發生後,美國已無法繼續一場沒有勝算的戰爭,以致於詹森必須作出停火與和談的決定,以平息當前反戰的民意,並且還能繼續處理越南問題以維護美國在東南亞之利益。
英文摘要 From the escalation of Vietnam War in 1965 to the withdrawal of Vietnam in 1975, the United States cost a whole decade. During this decade, public opposition to Vietnam War increased by degrees. There were not only lots of demonstrations but also quite a few violent conflicts in 1968. Tet offensive was the main reason of the changing public opinion. On January 30, 1968, North Vietnamese launched an attack by surprise and this became the crucial assault during the Vietnam War. Before this attack, the United States showed great confident in this war; however, Tet offensive presented to American people the truth behind official statement. Pictures of Tet offensive delivered by media also turned public opinion against the war. Besides the influence of the media and public opinion, the cost of the war made American economy decrease, and the continuing turmoil of South Vietnam forced Lyndon B. Johnson to change his Vietnam policy. On March 31, 1968, Johnson announced in the television speech that he would stop the bombing to seek the negotiation with North Vietnam, and that he would not seek for the nomination for the next presidential election.
This thesis focuses on the relationship between public opinion, U.S. politics and foreign policy. For this instance, the thesis not only discusses the basic background of Vietnam War and Tet offensive but also uses Gallup Poll to describe the shift of public opinion from 1965 to 1968. Moreover, the thesis takes public opinion as the variable, and uses rational actor model of Graham Allison’s decision-making theory to analyze LBJ’s decision on March 31, 1968.
The main theme of this thesis is that even in the Cold-War era, the United States had to commit the promise to his alliance, and to prevent the sovietization in South East Asia by Domino theory. Nevertheless, after Tet offensive, the United States could not continue the war without any advantage. Therefore, LBJ had to halt the bombing to seek negotiation so as to appease the public opinion. This decision enabled the United States to continue tackling the Vietnam problem and to protect the U.S. interests in South East Asia.

論文目次 目錄

第一章 緒論----------------------------------------------------------------------------1
第一節 研究動機和目的-------------------------------------------------------------1
第二節 文獻回顧----------------------------------------------------------------------3
第三節 研究方法與限制-------------------------------------------------------------7
第四節 研究架構---------------------------------------------------------------------10
第五節 小結---------------------------------------------------------------------------11

第二章 民意之定義與決策理論之概述------------------------------------------13
第一節 民意之定義與意涵---------------------------------------------------------13
第二節 民意對外交政策之態度取向---------------------------------------------22
第三節 決策理論對美國外交的理性決策之影響------------------------------26
第四節 小結---------------------------------------------------------------------------30

第三章 新春攻勢之爆發與效應---------------------------------------------------32
第一節 新春攻勢前民意對外交政策之態度------------------------------------33
第二節 新春攻勢---------------------------------------------------------------------37
第三節 大眾媒體對新春攻勢之報導---------------------------------------------44
第四節 新春攻勢後民意之轉變---------------------------------------------------53
第五節 小結---------------------------------------------------------------------------66

第四章 新春攻勢後之影響分析---------------------------------------------------67
第一節 反戰運動之爆發------------------------------------------------------------67
第二節 新春攻勢後之越南政策---------------------------------------------------76
第三節 新春攻勢後美國之政治變化---------------------------------------------87
第四節 小結---------------------------------------------------------------------------99

第五章 結論---------------------------------------------------------------------------102
參考書目--------------------------------------------------------------------------------110

參考文獻 參考書目
壹、中文部份

一、專書

王石番。民意理論與實務 。台北:黎明文化事業公司,民國八十四年。
托克維爾 (Alexis de Tocqueville) 著,李宜培、湯新楣合譯。美國的民主 。香港:今日世界社,民國五十七年。
李金銓。大眾傳播理論。台北:三民,民國九十四年。
宋楚瑜。美國政治與民意 。台北:黎明文化事業公司,民國六十七年。
韓念西 (Bernard Hennessy) 著,趙雅麗、張同瑩、曾慧琦合譯。民意 。台北:五南圖書出版公司,民國八十九年。
趙國材。「論美國出兵海外之法律依據與實踐」,後冷戰時期美國海外出兵案例研究 。台北︰中央研究院歐美研究所,民國九十年。
潘朝英、賴丹尼合撰,越南危機 (台北:徵信新聞報,民國55年)。

二、期刊

李瞻,「美國與論對政治的影響」,政治學報,第五期,民國五十一年,頁340。

三、論文

王明雄。越戰時期大眾傳播媒體對於美國外交政策的影響。淡江大學美國研究所碩士論文,民國七十六年。
徐麗玲。美國傳播媒介對政治的影響力。淡江大學美國研究所碩士論文,民國七十三年。
黃榮護。越戰對美國外交政策的影響。政治大學外交研究所碩士論文,民國七十五年。
蔡發林。美國六十年代學生運動。淡江大學美國研究所碩士論文,民國七十二年。
簡長盛。詹森總統與越戰之研究。淡江大學美國研究所碩士論文,民國七十四年。

貳、英文部份

I. Official Documents

Foreign Relations of United States 1964-1968, Vol. VI, Vietnam. http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ho/frus/johnsonlb/vi/

II. Books

Allison, Graham T. and Philip Zelikow, Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis, 2nd. New York: Longman, 1999.
Aronson, James, The Press and the Cold War. New York : The Bobbs Merrill Company, 1970.
Braestrup, Peter, Big Story: How the American Press and Television Reported and Interpreted the Crisis of Tet 1968 in Vietnam and Washington. New York: Anchor Books, 1978.
Churchill, Winston S., The Gathering Storm. Boston : Houghton Mifflin, 1948.

Cohen, Steven, Vietnam: Anthology and guide to a T.V. History. New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1983.
DeGroot, Gerard J., A Noble Cause? American and the Vietnam War. New York: Pearson Education, 2000.
Divine, Robert A., The Johnson Years, Volume Two: Vietnam, the Environment, and Science. University Press of Kansas, 1987.
Eisenhower, Dwight D., Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States. Washington, D.C. 1960.
Entman, Robert M. and David L. Paletz, “The War in Southeast Asia Tunnel Vision on Television”, edited by William C. Adams, Television Coverage of International Affairs. Norwood, N.J: Ablex Pub., 1982.
Gallup, George H., The Gallup Poll: public opinion 1935-1971, Vol. 3. New York: Random House, 1972.
Gelb, Leslie H., The Irony of Vietnam: The System Worked. Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1979.
Glazer, Nathan, Remembering the Answer: Essay on the American Student Revolt. New York: Basic Book, 1970.
Graber, Doris A., Mass Media and American Politics. Washington D.C.: Congressional Quarterly Press, 1980.

Herring, George C., America’s Longest War: The United States and
Vietnam1950-1975. McGraw-Hill, 1996.
Hess, Gary R., Vietnam and the United States. New York: Twayne Publishers, 1998.
Hodgson, Godfrey, America in Our Time: From World War II to Nixon, What Happened and Why. New York: Vintage, 1976.

Holsti, Ole R. and James N. Rosenau, American leadership in World Affairs-Vietnam and the Breakdown of Consensus. Boston: Allen and Unwin, 1984.
_______. Public Opinion and American Foreign Policy. The University of Michigan Pres, 1996.
Johnson, Lyndon B., The Vantage Point. Published by Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1971.
Karnow, Stanley, Vietnam: A History-The First Complete Account of Vietnam at War. New York: Viking Press, 1984.
Kattenburg, Paul M., The Vietnam Trauma in American Foreign Policy 1945-75. New Jersey: Transaction, 1980.
Kavanagh, Dennis, Political Science and Political Behavior. Boston: Allen & Unwin, 1983.
Kern, Montague, Patricia W. Levering, and Ralph B. Levering, The Kennedy Crises: The Press, the Presidency, and Foreign Policy. The University of North Carolina Press, 1984.
Key, V.O., Jr., Public Opinion and American Democracy. New York:Alfred.A.Knopf, 1961.
Lippmann , Walter, Public Opinion. New York:Macmillan, 1936.
McNamara, Robert S. and Brian VanDeMark, In Retrospect: The Tragedy and Lesson of Vietnam. New York: Random House, 1995.
Monroe, Alan D., Public Opinion in America. New York: Harper & Row Publishers, 1975.
Morgenthau, Hans J., Politics Among Nations. New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1978.
Moss, George Donelson, Vietnam: An American Ordeal. New York: Englewood Cliffs, 1990.
Oberdorfer, Don, TET! New York: Avon Books, 1971.
Olson, James S. and Randy Roberts, Where the Domino Fell : America and Vietnam, 1945-1995. New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1996.
Ranney, Austin, Channels of Power: The Impact of Television on American Politics. New York: Basic Books Publishers, 1983.
Reston, James, The Artillery of the Press-Its Influence on American Foreign Policy. New York: Harper Row Publishers, 1966.
Rosenau, James N., Citizenship Between Elections:An Inquiry Into the Mobilizable American. New York:The Free Press, 1974.
Rusk, Richard, As I Saw It by Dean Rusk as told to Richard Rusk, Daniel S. Papp ed. New York: W•W•Norton & Company, 1990.
Sandman, Peter M., Media: An Introductory Analysis of American Mass Communications. Prentice Hall college,1982.
Schmitz, David F., The Tet Offensive: Politics, War, and Public Opinion. Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2005.
Schulzinger, Robert D., A Time for War: The United States and Vietnam, 1941-1975.Oxford University Press, 1997.
Snyder, Glenn J. and Paul Diesing, Conflict Among Nations. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1977.

Steinberg, Charles S., The Information Establishment. New York: Hastings Publishers, 1980.
Turner, Kathleen J., Lyndon Johnson’s Dual War. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1985.

III. Articles

Guan, Ang Cheng. 1998. “Decision-making Leading to the Tet Offensive (1968)- The Vietnamese Communist Perspective.” Journal of Contemporary History: 33, No. 3, 341-353.
Hurwitz, John and Mark Peffley. 1987. “How Are Foreign Policy Attitudes Structured?A Hierarchical Model.” American Political Science Review: 81, No.4, 1099-1120.
Katz, Daniel. 1966. “Attitude Formation and Public Opinion.” Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science: 367, 150-162.
Liohart, Arend. 1971. “Comparative Politics and the Comparative Method,” American Political Science Review: Vol. 65, No.3, 691-693.
Simon, Herbert. 1955. “A Behavior of Rational Choice.”Quarterly Journal of Economics: 69, 99-118.

IV. Internet Resources

CNN Politics. Brief History Of Chicago's 1968 Democratic Convention
http://www-cgi.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1996/conventions/chicago/facts/chicago68/index.shtml
Wikipedia. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:TetMap.jpg

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