淡江大學覺生紀念圖書館 (TKU Library)
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系統識別號 U0002-0211201215482500
中文論文名稱 鮑威爾在兩次波灣戰爭之角色:檢視與評析
英文論文名稱 Examining and Analyzing General Colin Powell’s Roles in the Two Persian Gulf Wars
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 美洲研究所博士班
系所名稱(英) Graduate Institute of The Americas
學年度 101
學期 1
出版年 102
研究生中文姓名 葛鎮東
研究生英文姓名 Chen-Tung Ko
電子信箱 koct711@yahoo.com
學號 896250015
學位類別 博士
語文別 中文
口試日期 2012-11-02
論文頁數 180頁
口試委員 指導教授-李本京
委員-柯大衛
委員-王高成
委員-呂亞力
委員-姜新立
中文關鍵字 鮑威爾  不情願的戰士  溫伯格用兵條件  波灣戰爭  國家安全決策 
英文關鍵字 Colin Powell  Reluctant Warriors  the Weinberger Criteria on the Use of Force  the Persian Gulf War  National Security Decision-Making 
學科別分類
中文摘要 鮑威爾將軍是1990年代橫跨軍政兩界之耀眼巨星,他於1979年成為當時美軍最年輕之將領後,於很短時間內接續擔任國安顧問、美軍聯參會議主席,以及國務卿等職。他非但是首個出任該三個重要國安職務的非洲裔美國人,亦是迄今曾歷練過該三項職務的唯一美國人。他因成功率領美軍執行沙漠風暴軍事行動而一舉躍居全國性舞台,之後又因正直、卓越領導、克服種族逆境等特質而備受美國民眾愛戴與尊敬。
鮑威爾可說是過去1/4世紀間美國外交與國防政策最具代表性人物之一,身歷多次外交與國防政策辯論,其中包括越戰後美國軍力該如何運用、如何定位冷戰後美國之地位、1989年的巴拿馬軍事行動,以及兩場波灣戰爭。然相對於他高人氣戰爭英雄形象,包括總統在內諸多國安高層都批評鮑威爾抵制以武力做為因應危機的首要方式,而鮑威爾也因此在兩次波灣危機決策過程中均遭到程度不等地邊緣化、甚至孤立。然極端保守軍事思維並未影響鮑威爾的仕途,他仍然一路平步青雲,直到2004年小布希總統要求他辭去國務卿職務。本論文要由鮑威爾的軍旅生涯與行事風格,以及越戰後美國軍事思維演進之角度切入,來分析鮑威爾採取如此保守軍事決策的可能原因,以及此一保守立場與他仕途之關聯,期望藉此來增進對此一重要、但又謎樣般人物的瞭解。
本文的主要結論有四:
1.1960年代興起之民權運動所帶動種族議題進展,鮑威爾因條件配合而於1970年代初期起被不次拔擢,以展示美軍方為族群和諧所做之努力。1990年代,鮑爾因身為少數族裔奮鬥典範,又使他成為共和、民主兩黨所積極爭取之目標,以爭取種族牌之政治效益。然若除去政治光芒,鮑威爾應僅係事務型人才,缺乏成為宏觀國安決策者所需之戰略眼光。
2.鮑威爾雖反對以軍事干預做為首要外交工具,但他在可能動武的危機決策過程中均隨時關注總統動向,而當兩位布希總統做出發動戰爭的決定後,鮑威爾隨之妥協配合,並協助掃除戰爭障礙,以證明其存在價值。以鮑威爾之政治智慧與歷練,他此種反軍事介入之決策行為應是精明之政治計算,藉由迎合越戰後美國社會的反戰情緒,將自己形塑為謹慎用兵之軍事領袖,藉以爭取民眾認同與累積政治資本,但又不至於激怒最高決策者。
3.鮑威爾因反對以武力干預做為解決外交危機的首要方式,因此又被稱為「不情願的戰士」。此種保守軍事思維源自於美軍越戰慘痛教訓:包括不能讓文人領袖壟斷戰爭權力、美國軍力有其限制、戰爭須為最後手段,以及美國民眾並非無限度支持戰爭。此等觀點日後均被融入「溫柏格用兵條件」,嚴格規範美軍的軍力運用,以避免重蹈越戰覆轍。然美軍由越戰潰敗所歸納之教訓不無以偏概全、甚至謬誤情形,這使「溫柏格用兵條件」存在一定缺陷,而鮑威爾一昧堅持該用兵條件,使得他的軍事建議難以為政治高層所接受,並導致他在兩次波灣戰爭決策過程遭到邊緣化。
4.鮑威爾在政治光譜上相當中性,從未展露明顯的意識形態或政治傾向,這使得他易於被不同政治屬性之美國民眾接受。然此一政治中性特點在9/11攻擊事件後成為他的最大弱點,他在小布希政府內之主要對手「新保守主義派」雖然主張激進軍事路線,但因強調傳統美國政治意識與理念,因而被小布希委以主導美國外交政策之責任,這也使得鮑威爾與其所代表之保守軍事理念在9/11後逐步趨向衰落。
英文摘要 General Colin L. Powell (1937-present), a political superstar of the 1990s, has an extraordinary political and military career. He was promoted to the general rank in 1979 at the age of 41, and then in short order national security advisor, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the secretary of state. He was not only the first African American to serve in each of the three important national security assignments, but also the only American in history to hold those three positions. Being propelled onto the national stage for his leading role in the overwhelming military success of Operation Desert Storm (1991), he has since then remained immensely popular among Americans due to his integrity, leadership, and the ability to transcend racial barriers.
Few figures in the past quarter century have played a more prominent role in American foreign and defense policy than Colin Powell, who was deeply engaged in the most important foreign and defense policy debates, such as the uses of American force in the wake of Vietnam, the quest for America’s new role in the post Cold-War world, the interventions in Panama (1989), and the two Gulf Wars (1991 and 2003). However, contrary to his popular image as a war hero, Powell was highly criticized by many top decision-makers, the presidents included, for his resistance to seeing military force as the primary foreign policy instrument in responding to crises. As a result, he was fundamentally marginalized or even isolated in the decision-making processes leading to the two Gulf Wars. Interestingly, his ultra-conservative military belief did not in any way diminish his chance in rising up the ladder of success, not at least until 2004 when George W. Bush asked him to resign as Secretary of State due to policy differences. By closely examining Powell’s military career and personal traits, as well as the evolution of military thinking since Vietnam, this dissertation seeks to unravel the myths surrounding this important, yet enigmatic figure, by analyzing what were the rationales behind Powell’s advocacy of military restraint and its linkage to his career.
There are four major findings.
1. Race did play a role in Powell’s remarkable career and was major factor at numerous points in his rapid ascent. He was specifically selected and nurtured in the early 1970s to serve as evidence of the efforts by the US military to promote racial progress. In the 1990s, his image as a role model for minorities made him a sought-after figure by both the Republicans and the Democrats in order to exploit the race card to political advantage. However, his image as a political superstar obfuscated the fact that he was more a functionary figure than a strategic thinker.
2. Although Powell opposed the notion that military force should be the predominant foreign policy instrument, he closely monitored the president in times of foreign policy crises in which the use of force was considered. When the two Bushes decided to go for military options against Saddam Hussein, Powell quickly compromised, and was swayed to a pro-war stance, making himself useful by helping eliminate barriers to successful military operations. Powell’s anti-interventionist decision-making approach was based on sophisticated political calculations. It was wise for him to bank on the anti-war mentality after Vietnam and he played the role as a prudent and cautious military leader, a move which would bring him enormous popular support and, along with it, vast political capital. On the other hand, the last minute reversal on war against Hussein also saved him from antagonizing the president, the ultimate decision-maker.
3. Powell was famously known as “the reluctant warrior” because he rarely advocated military intervention as the first solution to foreign policy crises. His reluctance to the use of force grew out of the bitter lessons the US military taken from Vietnam, which include that the war power should not be monopolized by civilian leadership, that the US military power is limited, that military force should only be used as a last resort, and that the American support for US military involvement is finite. These lessons were formalized in “the Weinberger Criteria,” a list of conditions that sought to avoid another Vietnam-quagmire by strictly regulating the application of US military force. However, the lessons the military drew from Vietnam were overly generalized or even flawed, thus making the “Weinberger Criteria” inappropriate to be the guiding principle with regard to the use of force. Powell’s insistence on the “Weinberger Criteria” only made his military advice unacceptable to political leadership and marginalized his roles in the decision-making processes of the two Persian Gulf Crises.
4. Powell was politically neutral during his career, never revealing any strong ideology or political inclination, which made him easily acceptable to most Americans, both conservatives and liberals. However, this political neutrality became his major liability when the nation faced a real security crisis posed by the 9/11 terrorist attacks. His archrivals in the George W Bush’s administration, the neoconservatives, though pursued a radical military approach that stood directly opposite to the prudent “Weinberger Criteria,” had, at least, strong convictions in American traditional political ideology and ideals. In a time of crisis when strong political leadership was required, President Bush determined to choose the neoconservatives over Powell to lead foreign policy, thus leading to the downfall of one of the greatest soldier-statesmen since Eisenhower, as well as the military conservatism he embodied.
論文目次 目次

第一章 緒論.........................................................1
第一節 研究動機與問題.........................................................3
第二節 研究途徑........................................................14
第三節 文獻分析、研究限制、章節安排..................17

第二章 鮑威爾的生涯經歷、崛起因素與行事風格...............21
第一節 鮑威爾的軍旅生涯........................................................24
第二節 晉身決策階層........................................................39
第三節 鮑威爾的崛起因素與行事風格....................47

第三章 鮑威爾之對外軍事行動思維...........................53
第一節 鮑威爾對外軍事行動思維背景....................54
第二節 誤解戰爭論《三位一體》論述....................61
第三節 溫伯格用兵條件........................................................68

第四章 第一次波灣危機決策過程與鮑威爾之角色. .............79
第一節 危機前美國國內與波灣情勢......................79
第二節 危機決策過程.................................82
第三節 鮑威爾之決策角色.......................................................102

第五章 波灣危機決策過程與鮑威爾之角色....................111
第一節 「溫伯格用兵條件」面臨之挑戰.................112
第二節 危機決策過程.................................117
第三節 鮑威爾之決策角色.............................130

第六章 錢尼的權力布局與對鮑威爾之限制....................143
第一節 錢尼之權力來源...............................145
第二節 錢尼與新保守主義人士的結合..................147
第三節 對鮑威爾之限制..............................155

第七章 結論.............................................159

參考書目................................................167


表次

表2-1 鮑威爾軍旅生涯大事紀.......................................................22
表2-2 鮑威爾與海格生涯重要職務歷練比較..................31
表2-3 鮑威爾各階級晉升日期.......................................................48
表3-1 雷根總統任期內主要對外軍事行動....................73
表4-1 鮑威爾在第一次波灣危機時之重要決策行為............105
表5-1 柯林頓總統任期內主要對外軍事行動..................116
表5-2 鮑威爾在第二次波灣危機時之重要決策行為............139
表5-3 韓戰、越戰、波灣戰爭美軍死傷人數統計..............141
表6-1 新保守主義派人士在小布希政府任職情形..............150

圖次

圖3-1 基督教之三位一體/克勞賽維茨之戰爭三位一體.........64
圖4-1 沙漠風暴行動地面戰示意圖.........................103

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Yaniv, Avner. Dilemmas of Security: Politics, Strategy and the Israeli Experience in Lebanon. New York: Oxford University Press, 1987.
Book Review
Lawrence, Mark A. Review of American Tragedy: Kennedy, Johnson, and the Origins of the Vietnam War, by David Kaiser. Presidential Studies Quarterly, 31(2), June 2001.
Journal Articles
Adas, Jane. "Lisa Hajjar Discusses "the Second Intifada and the Global War on Terror"." The Washington Report on Middle East Affairs 25, no. 3 (2006), pp. 56-58.
Allison, Graham T. and Halperin, Morton H. “Bureaucratic Politics: A Paradigm and Some Policy Implications.” World Politics 24 (1972), pp. 40-79.
Art, Robert J. “Bureaucratic Politics and American Foreign Policy: A Critique.” Policy Sciences 4 (December 1973), pp. 467-490.

Avant, Deborah. "Conflicting Indicators of "Crisis" in American Civil-Military Relations." Armed Forces and Society 24, no. 3 (1998), pp. 375-387.
Bacevich, Andrew. J. "Tradition Abandoned: America's Military in a New Era." National Interest (Summer 1997), pp. 16-25.
Ball, Desmond J. “The Blind Men and the Elephant: A Critique of Bureaucratic Politics Theory.” Australian Outlook 28 (1974), pp. 71-92.
Barnes, James A. "The Imperial Vice Presidency." National Journal 33, no. 11 (Mar 17, 2001), pp. 814-815
Bassford, Christopher, and Edward J. Villacres. “Reclaiming the Clausewitzian Trinity.” Parameters (Autumn 1995), pp. 9-13.
Block, Alan A. "The Origins of Iran-Contra: Lessons from the Durrani Affair." Crime, Law and Social Change 33, no. 1-2 (2000), pp. 53-84.
Boot, Max. "Neocons." Foreign Policy no. 140 (2004), pp. 20-28.
Brands, H. W. "George Bush and the Gulf War of 1991." Presidential Studies Quarterly 34, no. 1 (2004), pp. 113-131.
Burke, John P. "The National Security Advisor and Staff: Transition Challenges." Presidential Studies Quarterly 39, no. 2 (2009), pp. 283-321.
Byers, Michael. "Agreeing to Disagree: Security Council Resolution 1441 and Intentional Ambiguity." Global Governance 10, no. 2 (2004): 165-186.
Byron, John I. “A Response to “Clausewitz: On Weinberger.”Marine Corps Gazette 73(1) (1989), pp. 17-18.
Caldwell, Dan. "Bureaucratic Foreign Policy-Making." The American Behavioral Scientist 21, no. 1 (1977), pp. 87-110.
Callahan, David. "The Honest Broker: Brent Scowcroft in the Bush White House." Foreign Service Journal 69, (1992), pp. 27-32.
Campbell, Kenneth J. “Once Burned, Twice Cautious: Explaining the Weinberger- Powell Doctrine.” Armed Force and Society (Spring 1998), pp. 357-374.
Cassiday, Robert M. "Prophets or Praetorians? The Uptonian Paradox and the Powell Corollary." Parameters 33, no. 3 (2003), pp. 130-143.
Chace, James. "The Wilsonian Moment?" The Wilson Quarterly 25, no. 4 (2001), pp. 34-41.
Clarke, Walter, and Jeffrey Herbst. "Somalia and the Future of Humanitarian Intervention." Foreign Affairs 75 (1996), pp. 70-85.
Cline, Lawrence E. "Defending the End: Decision Making in Terminating the Persian Gulf War." Comparative Strategy 17, (1998), pp. 363-380.
Cooley, John K. "Pre-War Gulf Diplomacy." Survival 33 (1991), pp. 125-139.
Crook, John R. "Vice President Cheney Applauds Strengthened Presidential Powers." The American Journal of International Law 99, no. 2 (2005), pp. 492-493.
Daniel, T. Rodgers. "American Exceptionalism Revisited." Raritan 24, no. 2 (2004), pp. 21-47.
Dunlap, Jr. Charles J. “Welcome to the Junta: The Erosion of Civilian Control of the U.S. Military.” Wake Forest Law Review, Vol. 29(2)(1994), pp. 341-373.
Fisher, Louis and Gray Adler David. "The War Powers Resolution: Time to Say Goodbye." Political Science Quarterly 113, no. 1 (1998), pp. 1-20.
Garry, Clifford, J. "Bureaucratic Politics." The Journal of American History 77, no. 1 (1990), pp. 161-168.
Goldstein. Joel, K. "The Contemporary Presidency: Cheney, Vice Presidential Power, and the War on Terror." Presidential Studies Quarterly 40, no. 1 (2010), pp. 102-139.
Goldstein. Joel, K. "The Rising Power of the Modern Vice Presidency." Presidential Studies Quarterly 38, no. 3 (2008), pp. 374-389.
Herberg-Rothe, Andreas. “Clausewitz’s Wondrous Trinity as a Coordinate System of War and Violent Conflict. “International Journal of Conflict and Violence, Vol.3 (2) (2009), pp. 204-219.
Hetherington, Marc J. and Michael Nelson. "Anatomy of a Rally Effect: George W. Bush and the War on Terrorism." Political Science & Politics 36, no. 1 (2003), pp. 37-42.
Hoffman, F. G. “The Powell Doctrine–Prudent or Inflexible Response?” Marine Corps Gazette 78(2) (1994), pp. 22-23.
Holland, Lauren. "The U.S. Decision to Launch Operation Desert Storm: A Bureaucratic Politics Analysis." Armed Forces and Society 25, no. 2 (1999), pp. 219-242
Indyk, Martin. “Beyond the Balance of Power: America’s Choice in the Middle East.” National Interest 26 (Winter 1991/92), pp. 33-43.
Kagan, Robert. "A Matter of Record." Foreign Affairs 84, no. 1 (2005), pp 170-173.
Kagan, Robert. "Neocon Nation: Neoconservatism, c. 1776." World Affairs 170, no. 4 (2008), pp. 13-35.
Kagan, Robert and William Kristol. "A National Humiliation." Weekly Standard 6, no. 30 (2001), pp. 11-16.
Kane, John. "American Values or Human Rights? U.S. Foreign Policy and the Fractured Myth of Virtuous Power." Presidential Studies Quarterly 33, no. 4 (2003), pp. 772-800.
Kohn, Richard H. “The Crisis in Military-Civilian Relations.” National Interest (Spring 1994), pp. 3-17.
Krasner, Stephen D. “Are Bureaucracies Important? Or Allison Wonderland.” Foreign Policy 7 (Summer 1972), pp. 159-179.
Krueger, Kimbra. "Internal Struggle over U.S. Foreign Policy toward Central America: An Analysis of the Reagan Era." Presidential Studies Quarterly 26, no. 4 (1996), pp. 1034-1046.
LaFeber, Walter. “The Rise and Fall of Colin Powell and the Powell Doctrine.” Political Science Quarterly 124(1) (2009), 71-93.

Laipson, Ellen. "The Robb-Silberman Report, Intelligence, and Nonproliferation." Arms Control Today 35, no. 5 (2005), pp. 20-23.
Levin, Carl, and Henry Hyde. "The Iran-Contra Pardons." ABA Journal 79, (1993), pp. 44-54.
Locher, James R. I. "Has it Worked? The Goldwater-Nichols Reorganization Act." Naval War College Review 54, no. 4 (2001), pp. 95-115.
McCarthy, Dennis M. “Does the Pentagon Still Believe in the Abrams Doctrine?” The Officer 82, no. 1 (2006), pp. 40-42.
Millett, Allan R. "On Strategy: The Vietnam War in Context." Marine Corps Gazette 66, no. 8 (1982), pp. 75-76.
Mueller, John E. "Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson." The American Political Science Review, Vol. 64 (March 1970). pp. 18-34.
Penmar, Karen. “Inflation Stages a Comeback.” Business Week, Apr. 3, 1989.
Perlmutter, Amos. "The Presidential Political Center and Foreign Policy: A Critique of the Revisionist and Bureaucratic-Political Orientations." World Politics 27 (October 1974), pp. 87-106.
Petraeus, David H. "Lessons of History and Lessons of Vietnam." Parameters 40, no. 4 (Oct, 2010), pp. 48-61.
Pfiffner, James P. "Decision Making in the Bush White House." Presidential Studies Quarterly 39, no. 2 (2009), pp. 363-384.
Pfiffner, James P. "Did President Bush Mislead the Country in His Arguments for War with Iraq?" Presidential Studies Quarterly 34, no. 1 (2004), pp. 25-46.
Pious, Richard M. "The Limits of Rational Choice: Bush and Clinton Budget Summitry." Presidential Studies Quarterly 29, no. 3 (1999), pp. 617-637.
Pomper, Miles A., Paul Kerr, and Daryl G. Kimball. "Getting it Right the Next Time: An Interview with Hans Blix." Arms Control Today 34, no. 6 (2004), pp. 14-17.

Powell, Colin L. "U.S. Forces: Challenges Ahead." Foreign Affairs 71 (1993), pp. 32-45.
Silverstein, Gordon. "The Law: Bush, Cheney, and the Separation of Powers: A Lasting Legal Legacy?" Presidential Studies Quarterly 39, no. 4 (2009), pp. 878-895
Stevenson, Charles A. "The Evolving Clinton Doctrine on the Use of Force." Armed Forces and Society 22 (1996), pp. 511-535.
Thelwell, Ekwueme Michael. "He Coulda Bin a Contendah: The Curious, Unprecedented, Enigmatic Political Career of General Colin L. Powell, U.S.A. Ret." The Massachusetts Review 37, no. 4 (1996), pp. 581-615
Tucker, Robert. "The Triumph of Wilsonianism?" World Policy Journal 10, no. 4 (1993), pp. 83-89.
Weigley, Russell F. "The American Military and the Principle of Civilian Control from McClellan to Powell." The Journal of Military History 57, no. 5 (1993), pp. 27-59.
White, Donald W. "Mutable Destiny." Harvard International Review 20, no. 1 (97, 1998), pp. 42-47.
Zarefsky, David. "Making the Case for War: Colin Powell at the United Nations." Rhetoric & Public Affairs 10, no. 2 (2007), pp. 275-302.
Theses / Dissertations
Handy, Kristina. "Civilian Control, Good Advice and Service Management: Three Elements of United States Civil-Military Relations Affected by the Goldwater-Nichols Defense Reorganization Act." Ph.D. Diss., University of Maryland, College Park, 2005.
Hayden, Craig Arthur. "The Vulcan Rhetoric of Crisis: Presidential Advisors and the War in Iraq." Ph.D. Diss., University of Southern California, 2007.

Oakley, Cigi. "Colin Powell: An African American Military and Political Leader Who Transcended the Racial Barriers of America." Ph.D. Diss., Pepperdine University, 2010.
Petraeus, David H. "The American Military and the Lessons of Vietnam: A Study of Military Influence and the Use of Force in the Post-Vietnam Era." Ph.D. Diss., Princeton University, 1987.
Thomas, Kehrin Kercher. "Colin Powell's 2000 Keynote Address: Compassionate Conservatism in an Age of Cynicism." MA. Thesis, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, 2004.
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