自20世紀以來衛生觀念的進步與醫療科技的發達，全球人口數不斷快速成長，人口結構也不斷老化，我國自1993年起便邁入高齡化社會，預估2026年我國將進入超高齡社會，根據Friedman(1957)提出恆常所得假說，人們最終會為了之後的養老生活，選擇持續投資較穩定的金融商品，為了維持生活中必要性之支出，老年人口必須持續持有收入來源，因此老年人口與年輕人口以何種資產形式持有財富，以求有更高的報酬來承擔老年人口與自己退休生活的沉重負擔，便是一項重要的議題，為了深入剖析台灣之人口議題，本研究欲利用SUR近似無相關迴歸模型探討台灣人口結構對資產需求(債券、貨幣、股票、土地)與長期股票報酬之關聯。
研究結果發現，65歲以上老年人口佔總人口比例對貨幣需求具有顯著正向影響、對土地需求具有顯著負向影響，針對細分各年齡層之研究結果發現，75歲之後對土地需求的影響便不顯著，年輕族群對貨幣呈負向關係。在長期股票報酬方面，MMY(40~64歲對25~39歲人口數之比例)、OMY(65歲以上對25~39歲人口數之比例)和A65(65歲以上老年人口佔總人口比)與長期股票報酬率呈現顯著負相關，且研究結果顯示隨著累積期的增加顯著性越高。

Since the improvements of public health and the developments of medical technology since the 20th century, the global population has been growing rapidly and also the population structure has been continually aging. Taiwan has entered an aging society since 1993, and it is estimated that Taiwan will enter an ultra-old society by 2026. According to the permanent income hypothesis proposed by Friedman (1957), people will eventually choose to invest continually in more stable financial assets for the use of later life. In order to maintain the necessary expenditures in later life, the elderly population must continue to hold income source. It is an important issue to study how the old and youth groups hold assets with higher returns and afford the later life expenditures. In order to deeply analyze the population structure in Taiwan, this research use the SUR model (seemingly unrelated regression model) to explore the  
correlation between Taiwan's population structure on asset demand (bonds, currency, stocks, land) and long-term stock returns.
The results of the study find that the proportion of the aged over 65 years old in the total population has a significant positive impact on currency demand and a significant negative impact on land demand. That the impact on land demand from the aged over 75 years old is not significant, young groups have negative relationships with currencies. For long-term stock returns, MMY (proportion of the population aged 40 to 64 to the population of 25 to 39 years), OMY (proportion of the population aged over 65 to the population of 25 to 39 years), and A65 (proportion of the elderly population over 65 to the total population) have a significant negative correlation with long-term stock returns, and the results show that as the accumulation period increases, there is stronger significance.

目錄
第一章、	緒論·····································································································································1
第一節、	研究背景與動機····································································································1
第二節、	研究目的··················································································································5
第三節、	研究流程與架構····································································································5
第二章、	文獻回顧····························································································································7
第一節、	人口結構··················································································································7
第二節、	人口結構與資產需求··························································································8
第三節、	人口結構與股票報酬率···················································································10
第三章、	研究方法·························································································································13
第一節、	研究架構················································································································13
第二節、	研究假說················································································································14
第三節、	資料來源與變數定義·······················································································15
一、	人口結構與資產需求·······················································································15
二、	人口結構與長期股票報酬··············································································17
第四節、	資料分析方法······································································································19
一、	人口結構與資產需求··························································································19
二、	人口結構與長期股票報酬················································································26

第四章、	實證結果與分析···········································································································28
第一節、	人口結構對資產需求變化之影響·······························································28
第二節、	人口結構對長期股票報酬之影響·······························································74
第五章、	結論與建議····················································································································78
第一節、	研究結果討論······································································································78
第二節、	研究限制與後續建議·······················································································82
參考文獻···············································································································································84
一、	中文文獻····························································································································84
二、	英文文獻····························································································································86














表目錄
表1 聯合國預估平均壽命···············································································································2
表2 人口結構與資產需求變數說明·························································································16
表3 人口結構與資產需求敘述統計·························································································17
表4 人口結構與長期股票報酬變數說明···············································································18
表5 人口結構與長期股票報酬敘述統計···············································································19
表6  SUR資產需求迴歸模型一估計結果············································································28
表7  SUR資產需求迴歸模型二估計結果············································································28
表8  SUR資產需求迴歸模型二估計結果············································································29
表9  SUR資產需求迴歸模型二估計結果············································································30
表10  SUR資產需求迴歸模型二估計結果··········································································31
表11  SUR資產需求迴歸模型三(X = A6569)估計結果·················································34
表12  SUR資產需求迴歸模型三(X = A7074)估計結果·················································34
表13  SUR資產需求迴歸模型三(X = A7579)估計結果·················································34
表14  SUR資產需求迴歸模型三(X = A8084)估計結果·················································35
表15  SUR資產需求迴歸模型三(X = A8589)估計結果·················································35
表16  SUR資產需求迴歸模型三(X = A9094)估計結果·················································35
表17  SUR資產需求迴歸模型三(X = A9599)估計結果·················································36表18  SUR資產需求迴歸模型三(X = A100)估計結果····················································36
表19  SUR資產需求迴歸模型三(X = A4064)估計結果·················································36
表20  SUR資產需求迴歸模型三(X = A2539)估計結果·················································37
表21  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A6569)估計結果·················································38
表22  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A7074)估計結果·················································38
表23  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A7579)估計結果·················································39
表24  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A8084)估計結果·················································40
表25  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A8589)估計結果·················································40
表26  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A9094)估計結果·················································41
表27  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A9599)估計結果·················································41
表28  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A100)估計結果····················································42
表29  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A4064)估計結果·················································42
表30  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A2539)估計結果·················································43
表31  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A6569)估計結果·················································44
表32  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A7074)估計結果·················································45
表33  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A7579)估計結果·················································45
表34  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A8084)估計結果·················································46
表35  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A8589)估計結果·················································47
表36  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A9094)估計結果·················································48
表37  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A9599)估計結果·················································48
表38  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A100)估計結果····················································49
表39  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A4064)估計結果·················································50
表40  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A2539)估計結果·················································51
表41  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A6569)估計結果·················································52
表42  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A7074)估計結果·················································53
表43  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A7579)估計結果·················································54
表44  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A8084)估計結果·················································55
表45  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A8589)估計結果·················································56
表46  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A9094)估計結果·················································57
表47  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A9599)估計結果·················································58
表48  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A100)估計結果····················································59
表49  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A4064)估計結果·················································60
表50  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A2539)估計結果·················································61
表51  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A6569)估計結果·················································62
表52  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A7074)估計結果·················································63
表53  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A7579)估計結果·················································64
表54  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A8084)估計結果·················································66
表55  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A8589)估計結果·················································67
表56  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A9094)估計結果·················································68
表57  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A9599)估計結果·················································69
表58  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A100)估計結果····················································70
表59  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A4064)估計結果·················································71
表60  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四(X = A2539)估計結果·················································73
表61 迴歸模型五40~64歲中壯年人口對25~39歲青壯年人口比之估計結果······························································································································································74
表62 迴歸模型五65歲以上全老年人口對25~39歲青壯年人口比之估計結果······························································································································································75
表63 迴歸模型五65歲以上全老年人口佔總人口比之估計結果·······························75
表64 迴歸模型六40~64歲中壯年人口對25~39歲青壯年人口比取一階差分之估計結果····················································································································································76
表65 迴歸模型六65歲以上全老年人口對25~39歲青壯年人口比取一階差分之估計結果···············································································································································76
表66 迴歸模型六65歲以上全老年人口佔總人口比取一階差分之估計結果·······77
表67  SUR資產需求迴歸模型三統計資料統整表···························································81
表68  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四取一期落後期統計資料統整表······························81
表69  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四取二期落後期統計資料統整表······························81
表70  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四取三期落後期統計資料統整表······························82
表71  SUR資產需求迴歸模型四取四期落後期統計資料統整表······························82




圖目錄
圖1 台灣高齡化時程─中推估······································································································4
圖2 台灣總生育率與出生數趨勢─高推估··············································································4
圖3 研究流程圖··································································································································6
圖4 人口結構與資產需求研究架構·························································································13
圖5 人口結構與長期股票報酬研究架構···············································································14

參考文獻
一、中文文獻
王艷、王鐿喬(2018)，人口結構對貨幣需求的異質性影響─以老齡化和城鎮化為                      
例，山東財經大學學報，30(5)，39-46。
李鴻英、賴宗裕(2017)，人口結構變遷對房地場市場之影響，土地問題研究季刊，
16(3)，69-82。
林俊宏、王光正、徐慶柏(2010)，我國人口老化現象與勞動供給預測之分析及其
對資產需求變化之影響，長庚人文社會學報，3(1)，171-219。
林律均(2018)，我國人口少子化、高齡化、勞保基金運用餘額與儲蓄率間關係之
研究，淡江大學企業管理學系碩士論文。
徐翊凱(2018)，老齡化率變動如何影響股市風險溢酬—以中國、香港、日本、韓
國、新加坡、臺灣及泰國為例，國立台灣大學國際企業學系碩士論文。
陳寬政(2009)，人口老化的原因與結果，人文與社會科學簡訊，10(2)，28-39。
陳寬政(2013)，台灣的人口老化，台灣經濟論衡，10，36-43。
陳琦仁(2014)，台灣人口結構與股票市場趨勢探討，中原大學企業管理研究所學
位論文。
陳郁雯(2017)，人口與長期股票報酬之關聯，淡江大學保險學系保險經營碩士論
文。
張日青、盧秋玲(2019)，台灣銀髮族資產持有行為之探討，證券市場發展季刊，
行為財務學特別專刊，427-451。
張家瑋(2015)，台灣人口高齡化對資產需求影響之研究，國立台中科技大學財務
金融學系碩士論文。
彭建文、蔡怡純(2017)，人口結構變遷對房價影響分析，經濟論文叢刊，45(1)，
163-192。
凱捷顧問公司(2019)，2019年世界財富報告，取自：
https://www.capgemini.com/cn-zh/wp-content/uploads/sites/12/2019/07/WWR_2019_Infographic-1.pdf。
楊凱傑(2018)，人口對長期股票報酬影響之再探討，淡江大學保險學系保險經營
碩士論文。
詹斯棋(2017)，人口年齡結構對貨幣需求的影響─基於弗里德曼貨幣需求函數在
中國的實證檢驗，對外經濟貿易大學金融學系碩士論文。
瑞普萊坊顧問公司(2019)，財富報告，取自：
https://content.knightfrank.com/resources/knightfrank.com/wealthreport/2019/the-wealth-report-2019.pdf。
魏津生(1992)，現代人口學，中國：重慶出版社。
鎮明常、李建祈、王慧娟、郭天鈞(2013)，人口結構改變對資本市場的影響，證
交資料，620，13-22。

二、英文文獻
Brooks. R (2000), “What will happen to financial markets when the baby boomers 
retire? ”, IMF working paper, No.00-18.
Bosworth, B. P., R. C. Bryant and G. Burtless (2004), “The Impact of Aging on 
Financial Markets and the Economy: A Survey,” Center for Retirement Research at Boston College Center for Retirement Research Working Papers, 062.
Davis, E. P., and C. Li. (2003),“Demographics and financial asset prices in the major 
industrial economies”, Brunel University Working Paper, No. 03-07.
Favero,C.A.,Tamoni,A.(2010),“Demographics and US Stock Market 
Fluctuations”,CESifo Economic Studies,57(1),25-43.
Friedman,M.(1957),“A Theory of the Consumption Function”, National Bureau of 
Economic Research,20-37.
Goyal, A.(2004),“Demographics, stock market flows, and stocks returns”, Journal of 
Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 39,115-142.
James M. Poterb (2001), “Demographic Structure and Asset Returns”, The Review of 
Economics and Statistic, 83(4),565-584.
Jeremy J. Siegel (2005),“The Future For Investors”, New York : Crown Business.
Modigliani. F and Brumberg. R (1954),“Utility Analysis and the Consumption 
Function: An Interpretation of Cross-Section Data”, Post-Keynesian Economics, 388-436.
Park.C (2010), “How does changing age distribution impact stock prices ? A 
nonparametric approach” , Journal of Applied Econometrics, 25, 1155-1178.
Venti, S. F. and D. A.Wise (2000), “Aging and Housing Equity,” NBER Working 
Paper, 7882.
Wasanthi.T., Mahinda.S. , and Nam.H(2017), “Demographics and Asset Markets: A 
Survey of the Literature” , Theoretical Economics Letters , 7(4), 782-794.
Zellner.A (1962), “An Efficient Method of Estimating Seemingly Unrelatrd 
Regressions and Test for Aggregation Bias,”Journal of the American Statistical Association,57,348-368.