半世紀以來各產業蓬勃發展，能源需求不斷升高，隨之而來的溫室氣體排放造成全球暖化，已被認為是人類生存的重大威脅之一。各國為達成減排目標，在減碳策略方面，冀能在維持經濟規模下，同時兼顧改善產業結構、提升能源效率及改善碳排放係數等目的。據此，本研究以拉氏指數拆解法(Laspeyres method)針對台灣1990-2016年工業、運輸業、農業、服務業四個部門進行探討，分析經濟規模、能源密集度、部門結構、碳密集度及人口五項因素對上述四部門CO2排放之貢獻度。研究結果發現，人口對所有部門CO2排放增量皆產生貢獻；經濟規模為工業、運輸業、服務業部門CO2排放增加的主要因素；能源密集度對所有部門皆是CO2排放減量因素，且是工業及運輸業部門的主要減量因素；部門結構為運輸業、農業、服務業CO2排放減量因素；碳密集度對四部門CO2排放皆是減量因素，且是服務業部門的主要減量因素。
上述CO2排放組成因素又受不同政策工具之影響，故本文根據上述拆解實證結果，採用似不相關迴歸模型(Seemingly Unrelated Regression，SUR)評估政策工具對工業及服務業部門各組成因素之影響。結果發現，環境稅實質稅額對服務業之能源密集度及碳密集度有負向顯著效果，而對工業之碳密集度產生正向顯著，說明環境法規訂定需考慮周全，避免產業使用汙染程度更高的替代能源；時間趨勢之實證結果顯示，技術進步可降低能源密集度對產業CO2排放之貢獻；發展乾淨能源技術，改善能源結構則有助於碳密集度對產業CO2排放之貢獻。故提升對技術改善之投入，可推動產業朝低碳產業、綠色經濟發展；進口關稅平均稅率調整須考量產業競爭力，對優勢產業而言不宜提高關稅，對弱勢產業而言關稅則有助產業發展。

Over the past half century, booming industries and rising energy demand, and the resulting global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions, have been regarded as one of the major threats to human survival. In order to achieve emission reduction goals, countries should adopt a carbon reduction strategy that aims to improve industrial structure, energy efficiency and carbon emission coefficient while maintaining economic scale. Based on this, the Laspeyres method was used to analyze the contribution of five factors, including economic scale, energy intensity, sector structure, carbon intensity and population, to the CO2 emissions of the four sectors in Taiwan from 1990 to 2016. The results show that population contributes to CO2 emission increment in all sectors. Economic scale is the main factor for the increase of CO2 emissions in the industry, transportation and service sectors. The energy intensity is the CO2 emission reduction factor for all sectors, and is also the main reduction factors of the industry and transportation sector. The sector structure is the CO2 emission reduction factor for transportation, agriculture, and service industries; the carbon intensity is the reduction factor for the four sectors of CO2 emissions, and is the main reduction factor for the service sector.
The results show that population contributes to CO2 emission increment in all sectors. Economic scale is the main factor for the increase of CO2 emissions in the industry, transportation and service sectors. The energy intensity is the CO2 emission reduction factor for all sectors, and is also the main reduction factors of the industry and transportation sector. The sector structure is the CO2 emission reduction factor for transportation, agriculture, and service industries; the carbon intensity is the reduction factor for the four sectors of CO2 emissions, and is the main reduction factor for the service sector. The results show that the substantial amount of environmental tax has a negative significant effect on the energy intensity and carbon intensity of the service industry, while a positive significant effect on the carbon intensity of the industry, indicating that the environmental regulations need to be carefully formulated to avoid the use of alternative energy sources with higher pollution levels. The empirical results of time trends show that technological progress can reduce the contribution of energy intensity to CO2 emissions of industry sector. Development of clean energy technologies and improvement of energy mix contribute to the contribution of carbon intensity to industrial CO2 emissions. Therefore, increasing investment in technology improvement can promote the development of low-carbon industry and green economy. The adjustment of the average tariff rate of import tariffs must consider the competitiveness of the industry, and it is not appropriate to raise tariffs for advantageous industries. For the disadvantaged industries, tariffs can help the development of the industry.

目錄	vi
圖目錄	vii
表目錄	viii
第一章  緒論	1
第一節  研究背景	1
第二節  研究動機與目的	3
第三節  論文架構	4
第二章  文獻回顧	6
第一節  CO2排放量趨勢	6
第二節  因素拆解法的實證文獻	9
第三節  相關政策對CO2排放與經濟之影響	18
第三章  研究方法與模型設定	24
第一節  拉氏指數拆解法	24
第二節  組成因素之貢獻量與政策工具的關聯分析	27
第四章  實證結果與分析	31
第一節  CO2排放量變動因素拆解結果：部門別	31
第二節  CO2排放量變動因素拆解結果：組成因素別	53
第三節  組成因素之貢獻量與政策工具的關聯分析	61
第五章  結論與建議	65
第一節  結論	65
第二節  政策意涵	67
參考文獻	68
中文文獻	68
英文文獻	70
附錄	74

圖目錄
圖1-1 基本研究流程	5
圖2-1部門別二氧化碳排放量趨勢圖	6
圖2-2燃料燃燒二氧化碳排放量與人均排放趨勢圖	7
圖2-3經濟成長率與二氧化碳排放變動率走勢圖	8
圖4-1-1 1991-2016年工業部門各排碳影響因子之貢獻	32
圖4-1-2五個拆解因素於各區間之CO2排放平均變動效果	36
圖4-1-3 1991-2016年運輸業部門各排碳影響因子之貢獻	37
圖4-1-4 五個分解因素於各區間之CO2排放平均變動效果	41
圖4-1-5拆解因素於各區間CO2排放平均變動量	43
圖4-1-6五個分解因素於各區間之CO2排放平均變動效果	46
圖4-1-7拆解因素於各區間CO2排放平均變動量	47
圖4-1-8 五個分解因素於各區間之CO2排放平均變動效果	51
圖4-2-1 1991-2016年四部門碳密集度之CO2排放變動趨勢	53
圖4-2-2 1991-2016年碳密集度於各區間之CO2排放平均變動效果	54
圖4-2-3 1991-2016年四部門之部門結構CO2排放變動趨勢	55
圖4-2-4 1991-2016年部門結構於各區間之CO2排放平均變動效果	55
圖4-2-5 1991-2016年四部門能源密集度之CO2排放變動趨勢	56
圖4-2-6 1991-2016年能源密集度於各區間之CO2排放平均變動效果	57
圖4-2-7 1991-2016年四部門經濟規模之CO2排放變動趨勢	58
圖4-2-8 1991-2016年經濟規模於各區間之CO2排放平均變動效果	58
圖4-2-9 1991-2016年四部門人口之CO2排放變動趨勢	59
圖4-2-10 1991-2016年人口於各區間之CO2排放平均變動效果	60

表目錄
表2-1拉氏指數拆解法相關文獻彙整表	11
表2-2迪氏指數拆解法相關文獻彙整表	14
表2-3迪氏指數法相關文獻彙整表	16
表2-4環境稅費相關文獻彙整表	20
表2-5貿易條件、貿易自由化與技術進步相關文獻彙整表	22
表3-1 變數代號及定義整理	25
表3-2 政策工具之資料來源及基本統計量	27
表4-1-1工業部門CO2排放變動量因素拆解	31
表4-1-2運輸業部門CO2排放變動量因素拆解	36
表4-1-3農業部門CO2排放變動量因素拆解	41
表4-1-4服務業部門CO2排放變動量因素拆解	46
表4-1-5各部門歷年產值佔比	52
表4-3-1工業部門	62
表4-3-2服務業部門	64
表5-1政策工具之有效性分析	66

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