自動化生產中不完整的現場失效資料經常出現在設備系統可靠度的評估上，產品壽命機率模型的不確定性，會影響分析結果的正確性，本論文假設系統壽命服從位置-尺度族，並以最常見的常態分配、最小極值分配和羅吉斯分配為可能的候選分配，根據不完整的區間設限現場失效資料，研究如何透過模型的互相競爭，篩選出最適合目前資料的產品壽命機率分配，配合使用牛頓法根據篩選出來的機率分配進行模型的參數估計，並以蒙地卡羅模擬以及實際案例評估所建議的統計方法的估計成效。通過模擬結果得到本論文提出的模型選擇方法有高的模型選擇正確率，參數估計結果表現穩定。最後，我們使用一個高速電機系統的現場失效資料說明我們所提出的統計方法的應用。

Incomplete field failure data from automated production often are applied for evaluating the system reliability. The uncertainty of the product lifetime distribution could affect the evaluation on the system reliability. This study assumes that the system lifetimes follow a member in the location-scale family, and then assigns the most likely candidate from the normal distribution, smallest extreme value distribution and logistic distribution as the underlying lifetime distribution. Based on the incomplete interval-censored field failure data, we study how the candidate distributions compete with each other and the practitioners how to select the most suitable candidate distribution as the lifetime distribution of products. The parameters in the candidate models are estimated through using the Newton method. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to evaluate the estimation performance of the proposed model. Simulation results show that our proposed method can have good estimation performance even the underlying lifetime model is uncertainty. A real interval-censored data set regarding high speed motor is used for illustrating the applications of the proposed method.

目錄
中文摘要	I
Abstract	II
目錄	IV
圖目錄	V
表目錄	VI
第一章 緒論	1
1.1 研究主題概述與文獻回顧	1
1.2 研究動機與論文架構	8
第二章 統計方法	9
2.1 統計模型	9
2.2 建議方法	18
第三章 模擬研究	20
第四章 案例研討	29
第五章 結論	33
參考文獻	36

圖目錄
圖3. 1: 常態、最小極值及羅吉斯分配的機率密度圖	22

表目錄
表3.1:  n=500，各標準化機率分配下的觀測時間點	21
表3.2: n=1000，各標準化機率分配下的觀測時間點	21
表3.3: n=500，參數估計量之估計偏誤與 MSE/σ	22
表3.4: n=1000，參數估計量之估計偏誤與 MSE/σ	23
表3.5: n=500，σ=10，使用AIC和BIC準則的選擇正確率	24
表3.6: n=500，σ=20.87，使用AIC和BIC準則的選擇正確率 24
表3.7: n=500，σ=50，AIC和BIC準則的選擇正確率	26
表3.8: n=1000，σ=10，AIC和BIC準則的選擇正確率	26
表3.9: n=1000，σ=20.87，AIC和BIC準則的選擇正確率	27
表 3.10: n=1000，σ=50，AIC和BIC準則的選擇正確率	27
表3.11: 經模型選擇後參數估計量之估計偏誤與 MSE/σ (n=500) 27
表3.12: 經模型選擇後參數估計量之估計偏誤與 MSE/σ (n=1000) 28
表4.1: 高速電機系統現場失效資料	29
表4.2: 高速電機系統現場失效資料的壽命分配競爭篩選結果 30
表4.3: 高速電機系統現場失效資料	31
表4.4: 高速電機系統現場失效資料的壽命分配競爭篩選結果 31

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