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系統識別號 U0002-0207201216491700
中文論文名稱 體型對失業的影響-以半無母數分析
英文論文名稱 The impact of body size on unemployment--a seminonparametric analysis.
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 產業經濟學系碩士班
系所名稱(英) Department of Industrial Economics
學年度 100
學期 2
出版年 101
研究生中文姓名 侯季志
研究生英文姓名 Chi-Chih Hou
學號 699540109
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
口試日期 2012-06-15
論文頁數 125頁
口試委員 指導教授-胡登淵
委員-于若蓉
委員-陳世能
中文關鍵字 失業  身體質量指數  相對身體質量指數  半母數模型 
英文關鍵字 Unemployment  Relative BMI  BMI  Seminonparametric Model 
學科別分類 學科別社會科學經濟學
中文摘要 本文探討體型對於失業的影響,以相對BMI與BMI定義體型,採用半無母數模型(Seminonparametric model)估計,並以此和Probit模型估計結果進行比較,半無母數分配假設較為寬鬆,不需如同Probit模型需將分配假設為常態。
研究資料使用2010年最新釋出的美國國民健康調查(National Health Interview Survey,NHIS)資料,並將樣本分為男女進行討論。此外,考慮到相對BMI或BMI與失業的內生性,使用Control Function approach處理此問題,使用的工具變數為區域肥胖盛行率。根據本研究結果,半無母數模型結果有半數皆拒絕Probit模型。半無母數模型的實證結果顯示:不分年齡下,男性相對BMI對失業沒有顯著影響,BMI對失業有負向顯著影響,即BMI上升使失業率下降;女性的相對BMI對失業沒有顯著影響,BMI則對失業有正向顯著影響,即BMI上升使失業率上升。年輕男性的相對BMI以及BMI皆對失業沒有顯著影響,年輕女性的相對BMI以及BMI對失業皆有正向顯著影響;中年男女性的相對BMI以及BMI皆對失業沒有顯著影響;老年男性的相對BMI以及BMI皆對失業有負向顯著影響,老年女性的相對BMI以及BMI對失業皆沒有顯著影響。本研究並繪出邊際效果圖形,可從圖形看出男女體型對於失業的變動情形。總而言之,體型只對老年男性失業有負向顯著影響;體型只對於年輕女性失業有正向顯著影響。
英文摘要 This study examines the impact of body size on the unemploymentby defining the body size as relative BMI and BMI. It estimates the effects by using Seminonparametric model, compared with the results of Probit model. The distribution assumption is relaxed in the Seminonparametric model, which does not assume normal distribution such as Probit model.
According to the results of this research, half of Seminonparametric models reject Probit model. Data using the latest release of the 2010 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) of the U.S., and the sample isdivided into male and female samples and samples of young, middle-aged and old cohorts.
In order to take the endogeneity of the relative BMI or BMI into account, we tackle this problem by using Control Function approach the instrumental variable is regional prevalence rate of obesity.
The results indicate that effect of relative BMI is insignificant, BMI is significantly nagtive for the whole sample of males.While the effect of relative BMI is insignificant, BMI is significantly positivefor the whole sample of females. Neither the effect of relative BMI nor the effect of BMI is significant for young males but a positive and significant effect is found for young females. Both relative BMI and BMI are not significant for middle-aged male and middle-aged female. Both relative BMI and BMI are negatively significant effect on unemployment for elderly male but insignificant effect for elderly female. This study also presents the patterns of marginal effects by using graphs.
All in all, body size has a negatively significant impact on unemployment only for elderly male. Increasing in body size will decrease the unemployment rate for elderly male. Body size has a positively significant impact on unemployment only for young female. Increasing body size will increase the unemployment rate for young female.
論文目次 目錄
第一章 緒論--------------------------------------------------------1
第二章 文獻回顧----------------------------------------------------6
第三章 資料來源和變數定義-----------------------------------------11
第一節 資料來源-----------------------------------------------11
第二節 樣本篩選-----------------------------------------------12
第三節 變數定義與敘述統計-------------------------------------15
第四章 實證模型設定-----------------------------------------------29
第五章 實證結果分析-----------------------------------------------31
第一節 體型對失業的影響---------------------------------------31
第二節 分年齡層探討體型對失業的影響---------------------------39
第三節 討論---------------------------------------------------74
第六章 結論-------------------------------------------------------76
參考文獻(References)------------------------------------------------78
中文文獻-------------------------------------------------------78
英文文獻-------------------------------------------------------78
附錄---------------------------------------------------------------83
圖表目錄
表一 變數概述表--------------------------------------------------23
表二 男性敘述統計表----------------------------------------------25
表三 女性敘述統計表----------------------------------------------27
表四 不控制疾病變數下不分年齡半無母數模型------------------------35
表五 不控制疾病下失業不分年齡邊際效果----------------------------37
表六 不控制疾病變數下年輕族群半無母數模型------------------------45
表七 不控制疾病變數下年輕族群邊際效果----------------------------47
表八 不控制疾病變數下中年族群半無母數模型------------------------49
表九 不控制疾病變數下中年族群邊際效果----------------------------51
表十 不控制疾病變數下老年族群半無母數模型------------------------53
表十一 不控制疾病變數下老年族群邊際效果----------------------------55
表十二 不控制疾病變數下不分年齡—IV Probit Model-------------------57
表十三 不控制疾病變數下年輕族群—IV Probit Model--------------------59
表十四 不控制疾病變數下中年族群—IV Probit Model-------------------61
表十五 不控制疾病變數下老年族群—IV Probit Model--------------------63
表十六 不控制疾病變數下失業的工具變數檢定表(相對BMI) --------------73
表十七 不控制疾病變數下失業的工具變數檢定表(BMI)-------------------73
圖1 2002年到2012年美國失業率--------------------------------------4
圖2 2010年美國20歲以上男性失業率----------------------------------4
圖3 2010年美國20歲以上女性失業率----------------------------------5
圖4 18歲到65歲,BMI10~60機率密度分配圖---------------------------13
圖5 18歲到65歲,BMI15~50機率密度分配圖--------------------------14
圖6 刪除所有變數遺漏值,18到65歲,BMI15到50機率密度分配圖-------------------------------------------------------------------14
圖7 不控制疾病變數下男性相對BMI與失業邊際效果圖形----------------65
圖8 不控制疾病變數下男性BMI與失業邊際效果圖形------------------- 65
圖9 不控制疾病變數下女性相對BMI與失業邊際效果圖形----------------66
圖10 不控制疾病變數下女性BMI與失業邊際效果圖形--------------------66
圖11 不控制疾病變數下年輕男性相對BMI與失業邊際效果圖形------------67
圖12 不控制疾病變數下年輕男性BMI與失業邊際效果圖形----------------67
圖13 不控制疾病變數下年輕女性相對BMI與失業邊際效果圖形------------68
圖14 不控制疾病變數下年輕女性BMI與失業邊際效果圖形----------------68
圖15 不控制疾病變數下中年男性相對BMI與失業邊際效果圖形------------69
圖16 不控制疾病變數下中年男性BMI與失業邊際效果圖形----------------69
圖17 不控制疾病變數下中年女性相對BMI與失業邊際效果圖形------------70
圖18 不控制疾病變數下中年女性BMI與失業邊際效果圖形----------------70
圖19 不控制疾病變數下老年男性相對BMI與失業邊際效果圖形------------71
圖20 不控制疾病變數下老年男性BMI與失業邊際效果圖形----------------71
圖21 不控制疾病變數下老年女性相對BMI與失業邊際效果圖形------------72
圖22 不控制疾病變數下老年女性BMI與失業邊際效果圖形----------------72
附錄---------------------------------------------------------------83
附表一 文獻彙整---------------------------------------------------83
附表二 控制疾病變數下不分年齡層的失業—半無母數模型---------------84
附表三 控制疾病變數下不分年齡層的失業—邊際效果-------------------87
附表四 控制疾病變數下年輕族群的失業—半無母數模型-----------------90
附表五 控制疾病變數下年輕族群的失業—邊際效果---------------------93
附表六 控制疾病變數下中年族群的失業—半無母數模型-----------------96
附表七 控制疾病變數下中年族群的失業—邊際效果---------------------99
附表八 控制疾病變數下老年族群的失業—半無母數模型----------------102
附表九 控制疾病變數下老年族群的失業—邊際效果--------------------105
附表十 控制疾病變數下不分年齡層的失業—IV Probit Model -----------108
附表十一 控制疾病變數下失業的工具變數檢定表(相對BMI)------------- 119
附表十二 控制疾病變數下失業的工具變數檢定表(BMI)------------------119
附表十三 不分年齡層下各種疾病內生性檢測---------------------------120
附表十四 年輕族群各種疾病內生性檢測-------------------------------121
附表十五 中年族群各種疾病內生性檢測-------------------------------122
附表十六 老年族群各種疾病內生性檢測-------------------------------123
附表十七 2010年全美各州失業率------------------------------------ 124
附圖1 控制疾病變數下男性失業的相對BMI邊際效果圖形---------------111
附圖2 控制疾病變數下男性失業的BMI邊際效果圖形-------------------111
附圖3 控制疾病變數下女性失業的相對BMI邊際效果圖形---------------112
附圖4 控制疾病變數下女性失業的BMI邊際效果圖形-------------------112
附圖5 控制疾病變數下年輕族群男性失業的相對BMI邊際效果圖形-------113
附圖6 控制疾病變數下年輕族群男性失業的BMI邊際效果圖形-----------113
附圖7 控制疾病變數下年輕族群女性失業的相對BMI邊際效果圖形-------114
附圖8 控制疾病變數下年輕族群女性失業的BMI邊際效果圖形-----------114
附圖9 控制疾病變數下中年族群男性失業的相對BMI邊際效果圖形-------115
附圖10 控制疾病變數下中年族群男性失業的BMI邊際效果圖形-----------115
附圖11 控制疾病變數下中年族群女性失業的相對BMI邊際效果圖形-------116
附圖12 控制疾病變數下中年族群女性失業的BMI邊際效果圖形-----------116
附圖13 控制疾病變數下老年族群男性失業的相對BMI邊際效果圖形-------117
附圖14 控制疾病變數下老年族群男性失業的BMI邊際效果圖形-----------117
附圖15 控制疾病變數下老年族群女性失業的相對BMI邊際效果圖形-------118
附圖16 控制疾病變數下老年族群女性失業的BMI邊際效果圖形-----------118
附圖17 美國各州失業率圖------------------------------------------ 125
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