本文利用台灣地區1982年至2005年期間的樣本資料，實證探索匯率波動性與金融發展程度二項因素對經濟成長的影響。結果如下：實質有效匯率指數變動率對經濟成長率呈現顯著負向影響，金融發展程度對經濟成長率有顯著正向影響，以上二個變數交叉項對經濟成長率的影響為顯著正向。由此推論，金融發展程度可以將匯率波動性的負面影響抵銷。就目前金融發展程度而言，台灣地區已經具備採行浮動匯率制度的條件。

This article empirically examines the effects of exchange rate fluctuations and financial developments on the economical growth in Taiwan using annual data covering the period from 1982 to 2005. Our findings proved that exchange rate fluctuations have generated negative effects to the economical growth, while the positive effect of financial development is strong enough to eliminate the adverse effects of exchange rate fluctuations implying that the proposition that financial development accompanied with floating exchange rate system can push economical growth upward. Our estimation also shows
that the current level of financial development in Taiwan has created favorable condition for adapting the floating exchange rate system.

目 錄
目錄 …………………………………………………………… Ι
圖表目錄   …………………………………………………… Ⅱ
第一章 緒論
第一節　 研究背景與動機  ………………………………… 1
第二節　 研究目的  ………………………………………… 6
第三節　 論文架構…………………………………………… 7
第二章 文獻探討
第一節　 匯率制度的探討  ………………………………… 9
第二節　 支持浮動匯率制度的主張  ……………………… 18
第三節　 反對浮動匯率制度的主張  ……………………… 26
第三章 理論模型
第一節　 模型設定及均衡成長率與創新率  ……………… 34
第二節　 固定匯率制度下之比較靜態分析  ……………… 42
第三節　 浮動匯率制度下之比較靜態分析  ……………… 45
第四章 實證估計與結果
第一節　 實證方程式  ……………………………………… 49
第二節　 統計資料來源  …………………………………… 54
第三節　 實證估計結果  …………………………………… 57
第五章 結論
　
參考文獻 ……………………………………………………… 66

表目錄
表4-1　變數定義、計算方式與資料來源  ………………… 54
表4-2　各變數敘述統計量分析  …………………………… 55
表4-3　實證估計結果  ……………………………………… 56
圖目錄
圖1-1 中華民國實質GDP  …………………………………… 4
圖1-2 美元兌新台幣名目匯率 ……………………………… 4
圖1-3 中華民國金融發展程度 ……………………………… 5
圖2-1 浮動匯率下出口需求改變的效果 …………………… 24
圖2-2 固定匯率下出口需求改變的效果 …………………… 24
圖2-3 浮動匯率下國內實質貨幣需求增加的效果   ……… 30
圖3-1 i c 累積分配函數 …………………………………… 39
圖3-2 創新機率累積分配函數 ……………………………… 47
圖4-1 中華民國金融發展程度 ……………………………… 61
圖4-2 中華民國貿易開放程度 ……………………………… 61

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