國際政治領域中，多數研究聚焦在俄羅斯和歐盟的天然氣關係，較少注意到過境國的角色。本文從國際層次的角度，發現白俄羅斯、喬治亞和摩爾多瓦的特殊地位；特別是在1991年之後，他們的新政府尚未穩定，經濟上又高度依賴天然氣，所以，必然要和俄羅斯進行議價。所幸的是，白俄羅斯、喬治亞和摩爾多瓦承襲蘇聯時期的天然氣管線，可以獲得議價籌碼；另外，他們可以走向「親俄羅斯」、「親歐盟」或「搖擺」兩者之間的道路。有趣的是，白俄羅斯、喬治亞和摩爾多瓦卻發展出不同的對外關係。因此，本文以白俄羅斯、喬治亞和摩爾多瓦作為例子，比較出過境國在生產國和消費國之間的議價能力。

Many studies with respect to the field of international politics focus more on the natural gas of Russia and EU rather than neighboring countries. Therefore, the main purpose of this thesis is to explore the distinct roles of Belarus, Georgia, and Moldova at the international level. In 1991, after the break up of Soviet Union, their governments suffer domestic problems. Since they are highly dependent on natural gas, they have to negotiate with Russia. Although they are independent countries, they still abide with Russia’s policy. Fortunately, they are gas transit countries of Russia and EU. Accordingly, they can develop either pro-Russia, pro-EU or in-Between policy. On this sense, they present on different bargaining power with Russia and EU. Thus, taking these three countries as case study, we compare their bargaining power.

目錄
天然氣過境國的議價能力：以白俄羅斯、喬治亞和摩爾多瓦為例
第一章 緒論………………………………………1
第一節 研究動機與目的………………………………………4
第二節 文獻檢閱………………………………………5
第三節 研究方法、範圍與限制………………………………………12
第四節  研究架構與章節安排………………………………………13
第二章 白俄羅斯………………………………………16
第一節 斯拉夫人，還是歐洲人………………………………………16
第二節 俄羅斯對白俄羅斯的戰略………………………………………18
第三節 Gazprom和Beltransgaz的競合………………………………………22
第四節 歐盟因素………………………………………28
第五節 小結………………………………………32
第三章 喬治亞………………………………………35
第一節 South Ossetia、Abkhazia和Adjara………………………………………35
第二節 喬治亞的優勢………………………………………39
第三節 俄羅斯、歐盟和美國的因素………………………………………46
第四節 小結………………………………………53
第四章 摩爾多瓦………………………………………55
第一節 摩爾多瓦和Transnistria………………………………………55
第二節 俄羅斯和歐盟的因素………………………………………60
第三節 摩爾多瓦的轉捩點………………………………………66
第四節 小結………………………………………69
第五章 總結………………………………………70
參考文獻………………………………………75
圖目次
圖1–1：Gazprom的管線運輸和地下儲氣庫………………………………………2
圖1–2：俄羅斯出口天然氣至歐洲國家的比例………………………………………3
圖1–3：權力行為的光譜………………………………………10
圖1–4：權力與貿易………………………………………11
圖1–5：研究架構………………………………………15
圖2–1：2002–2016年白俄羅斯對俄羅斯的貿易情況………………………………………21
圖2–2：Yamal–Europe………………………………………23
圖2–3：Northern Lights………………………………………24
圖2–4：2001–2016年白俄羅斯外債總額與經濟成長的百分比……………………27
圖2–5：Nord Stream………………………………………33
圖2–6：Turk Stream………………………………………34
圖3–1：Transcaucus鐵路………………………………………40
圖3–2：喬治亞管線………………………………………41
圖3–3：2001–2016年喬治亞天然氣管線的運輸量………………………………………43
圖3–4：Roki隧道………………………………………49
圖3–5：Dzuarikau–Tskhinvali管線………………………………………50
圖3–6：1996–2016年喬治亞國內生產總值………………………………………52
圖3–7：1996–2016年喬治亞、俄羅斯、亞塞拜然和土耳其的進口額趨勢………………………………………52
圖4–1：摩爾多瓦和Transnistria………………………………………56
圖4–2：摩爾多瓦天然氣運輸系統………………………………………63
圖4–3：摩爾多瓦對俄羅斯的進出口………………………………………65
圖4–4：摩爾多瓦對歐盟的進出口………………………………………66
圖4–5：Iasi–Ungheni–Chisinau管線………………………………………68

表目次
表1–1：Economic Statecraft、Foreign Economic Policy和Financial Statecraft………………………………………9
表1–2：Economic Statecraft的形式………………………………………9
表2–1：白俄羅斯政權封閉的程度………………………………………18
表2–2：2005年白俄羅斯外交政策的看法………………………………………30
表2–3：2005年至2008年白俄羅斯民主現象的趨勢………………………………………31
表3–1：喬治亞民族比例分布………………………………………36
表3–2：South Caucasus公司股權分布………………………………………42
表3–3：Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan公司股權分布………………………………………44
表3–4：Baku–Tbilisi–Supsa管線股權分布………………………………………45
表3–5：喬治亞民主、市場經濟和有效利用資源的評分……………………………………46
表4–1：摩爾多瓦和Transnistria的人口比例………………………………………58
表4–2：摩爾多瓦燃料結構………………………………………61
表5–1：白俄羅斯、喬治亞和摩爾多瓦的市場和民主………………………………………70
表5–2：白俄羅斯、喬治亞和摩爾多瓦的能源依賴性………………………………………71
表5–3：白俄羅斯、喬治亞和摩爾多瓦的貿易評估………………………………………72
表5–4：議價能力………………………………………74

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