會計衡量價值從歷史成本基礎轉變為公允價值基礎，前人研究認為此對銀行業損益會造成較大波動，同時亦有研究指出，因金融風暴發生會帶來兩者的交乘效果，損益波動益形嚴重。台灣對這一議題的研究闕如，但銀行業卻渴望獲得更多理論的指引，基此，本研究以探討在會計評價基礎改變又適逢全球金融危機發生時，我國銀行管理階層所關注影響經營績效之關鍵因素及監理機關所遵循之銀行危機預警模型是否應有所改變。
本研究之樣本共分為兩個期間，一為實施公允價值評價會計且處在金融危機期間，另一為未實施公允價值評價會計且處在非金融危機期間，藉由迴歸分析觀察不同期間影響銀行績效之危機預警關鍵因素，而研究果顯示（1）在實施公允價值會計後，因為會計資訊攸關性的提高，使得金融資產相關之財務報表資訊成為衡量銀行績效之關鍵因素之ㄧ。（2）在市場景氣不佳時，股價指數及國內實質利率與銀行經營績效具顯著相關性。本研究認為在實施公允價值會計後且處在金融危機期間時，我國銀行業用以衡量經營績效之關鍵因素應有所改變，此對銀行管理階層、存款人及投資人均有管理及決策意涵，且對銀行監理機構在決定銀行危機預警模型上亦有參考價值。

The value measurement of accounting has shifted from historical cost-based to fair value-based. Studies in the past has shown that this may led to earnings volatility of banks, and some other studies suggested that the volatility would be escalated by the global financial crisis’ interactive effects. There is no sufficient researches related to this in Taiwan, but many bank managers expect to gather more academic knowledge to assist them to control risks and make strategic decisions. For this reason, this study aims to examine if the determinants of banking performance shall change when the banks face both fair value accounting change and the global financial crisis.

Research samples of this study have been grouped into two periods: First (2003~2005), when SFAS No.34 wasn’t adopted by Taiwan’s commercial banks and without the impact of global financial crisis, and Second (2007~2012) vise versa. We attempted to find the key factors of banking performance for these two different periods through regression analysis. One of empirical results is when fair value accounting was adopted during the global financial crisis period, the accounting information related to the financial assets became the one of determinants of banking performance as the value relevance of accounting information was improved. Another finding for the same period is, Taiwan stock index and the internal real interest rate are also the influential variables of operating performance for Taiwan’s commercial banks. This study provides a guidance for management and strategic decisions made by the bank managers, investors, and debtors in Taiwan. Moreover, it also offers the advices to the banking supervisory organization for deciding which factors shall be included in the banking crisis warning model.

目  錄	                        
第壹章 緒論	                 1
第一節　研究背景與動機	        1
第二節　研究目的	                 4
第三節　研究流程	                 5
第貳章 文獻探討	                 6
第一節　公允價值會計與價值攸關性    6
第二節　全球金融危機之成因及影響   13
第三節　銀行危機	                18
第參章 研究方法	                30
第一節　觀念架構	                30
第二節　研究假說	                31
第三節　實證模型	                34
第四節　變數定義及衡量	       37
第五節　樣本選取與資料來源	       46
第肆章 實證結果與分析	       49
第一節　敘述性統計      	       49
第二節　逐步迴歸分析	       51
第三節　額外分析	                59
第四節　本研究之管理意涵	       63
第伍章 結論與建議	                65
第一節　結論	                65
第二節　建議	                66
第三節　研究限制	                67
參考文獻	                         68

圖目錄
圖1-1 研究流程圖  5
圖3-1 觀念架構圖  31

表目錄
表 2-1 國內外與銀行危機預警模型相關之研究 21
表 3-1 本研究所採用之自變數 36
表 3-2 本國銀行一覽表 47
表 4-1 敘述性統計表（此表僅摘錄部份變數，完整資料請詳附錄一） 50
表 4-2 影響台灣銀行績效關鍵因素之逐步迴歸結果_以ROA 為應變數 55
表 4-3 影響台灣銀行績效關鍵因素之逐步迴歸結果_以ROE 為應變數 58
表 4-4 影響台灣銀行績效關鍵因素之逐步迴歸結果_以ROA 為應變數_P1 期、P2 期與P3 期之比較 61
表 4-5 影響台灣銀行績效關鍵因素之逐步迴歸結果_以ROA 為應變數_P1 期、P2 期與P3 期之比較 62
附錄一 敘述性統計量 72

中文部分
丁玉成，2000，臺灣區銀行信用評等之模式研究－以Bank Watch 評等為基礎的實證研究，國立臺灣大學商學研究所博士論文。
王筱君，2009，美國次級房貸風暴與金融商品財務報導價值攸關性之研究—以我國金融業為例，國立政治大學會計學系碩士論文。
李郁儒，2006，三十四號公報與股票報酬之關聯性研究-以電子業為例，國立台灣大學會計學系碩士論文。
沈中華，2002，【金融市場】，華泰書局。
吳懿娟，2003，我國金融危機預警系統之研究，中央銀行季刊第二十五卷第三期。
林凱鴻，2001，盈餘、帳面價值攸關性研究—考慮規模效果—，國立台灣大學會計學系碩士論文。
林岱融，2007，我國電子業上市公司金融商品公允價值資訊之報導方式對於價值攸關性之影響，私立輔仁大學會計學系碩士論文。
林曉莉，2009，美國次貸風暴對兩岸銀行業之影響，國立政治大學國際經營與貿易學系碩士論文。
高育群，2007，本國銀行預警系統之研究，私立東吳大學會計學系碩士論文。
陳曉蓉，1997，「CAMEL與銀行評等－兼論商業銀行自有資本與資產品質間的關係」，政治大學金融研究所碩士論文。
陳夢婷，2000，金融相互關連、脆弱程度與銀行危機之研究，國立中央大學財管所碩士論文。
張大成、林郁翎，2003，全球銀行危機預警綜合指標之建立，「商情資料庫分析與建置之研究」成果發表會。
彭美玲，2005，本國銀行經營績效之實證研究，萬能科技大學工業管理系商管科技季刊第六卷第一期。
楊淑萍，2001，企業財務健全度影響盈餘與帳面價值在評價模式中相對重要性之研究，國立成功大學會計學系碩士論文。
鄭嘉豪，2010，銀行危機與公允價值會計—美國商業銀行之證據，私立淡江大學會計學系碩士論文。
英文部分
Altman E.I, 1968. Financial ratios, discriminant analysisand the prediction of corporate    bankruptcy. Journal of Finance. Vol.13(9).
Ahmed A. s., Kilic, and G. J. Lobo, 2006. Does Recognition versus Disclosure Matter？Evidence from value-relevance of Banks’ Recognized and Disclosed Derivative Financial Instruments. The Accounting Review. Vol.81, No.3: 567-588.
Ball, R and P. Brown, 1968. An empirical evaluation of accounting income numbers. Journal of Accounting Research (Autumn): 159-178.
Barth, Landsman and Wahlen, 1995. Fair value accounting: Effects on banks’ earnings volatility, regulatory capital, and value of contractual cash flows. Journal of Banking & Finance: 577-605.
Barth, Marry E., W. Beaver and W. Landsman., 1996. Value-Relevance of Banks’ Fair Value Disclosure under SFAS 107. The Accounting Review 71: 513-537.
Bell, James and Darren Pain, 2000. Leading Indicator Models of Banking Crises-A Critical Review. Financial Stability Review, The Bank of England, December 2000, issue 9.
Barth, Beaver and Landsman, 2001. The relevance of the value relevance literature for financial accounting standard setting: Another view. Journal of Accounting & Economics: 77-104.
Barth, M. E., Donald P. Cram, Karen K. Nelson, 2001. Accruals and the prediction of future cash flows. The Accounting Review 76: 27-58.
Benjamin J. Keys, Tanmoy Mukherjee, Amit Seru, Vikrant Vig, 2007. Securitization and Screening: Evidence from Subprime Mortgage Backed Securities Buiter. Lessons from the 2007 Financial Crisis., CEPR, Policy Insight No. 18
Collins, D.W., Maydew, E.L., and Weiss, I.S., 1997. Change in the value-relevance of earnings and book values over the past forty years. Journal of Accounting and Economics 24: 39-67.
Casabona, P. A., and S. Gornik-Tomaszewski, 2007. Special Issue: Fair Value in Financial Reporting, Auditing, and Tax Accounting. Review of Business 27(4): 2-5.
DemirgüÇ-Kunt, Asli and Enrica Detragiache, 1998. Financial liberalization and financial fragility. IMF working paper, No.83, June 1998.
Eccher, A., K. Ramesh, S.R. Thiagarajan, 1996. Fair value disclosures band holding companies. Journal of Accounting and Economics 22: 79-117.
Eckstein C., A. Markelevich, and A. Reinstein, 2007. Accounting for Derivative Instruments and Hedging Activities (SFAS No.133): Implication for Profitability Measures and Stock Prices. Working Paper. Columbia University, Long Island University and Wayne State University.
Gonzalez-Hermosillo, Pazarbasioglu, Billings, 1997. Determinants of Banking System Fragility: A Case Study of Mexico. IMF Staff Papers.
Gonzalez-Hermosillo, Brenda, 1999. Developing Indicators to Provide Early Warnings of Banking Crises. Finance & Development (IMF), Vol. 36, No. 2, June 1999: 36-39.
Gilbert, R. A., Andrew P.  Meyer and Mark D. Vaugham, 2000. The role pf a CAMEL downgrade model in bank surveillance. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, working paper.
Hempel G. H., D. G. Simonson and Alan B. Coleman, 1994, Bank Management: Text and Cases, John Wiley & Sons, Inc, New York
Hwang, Dar-Yeh, Cheng F. Lee and K. Thomas Liaw, 1997. Forecasting bank failures and deposit insurance premium. International Review of Economics and Finance 6(3): 317-334
Kaminsky, Graciela and Carmen Reinhart, 1996. The Twin Crises: The Causesof Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems. The American Review Vol.89, issue3, (June 1999): 500.
Khurana, I. K. and M.S. Kim. 2003. Relative value relevance of historical cost vs. fair value: Evidence from bank holding companies. Journal of Accounting and Public Policy 22:19-42.
Lo, K., and T. Lys, 2001. The Ohlson model: contributions to valuation theory, limitations, and empirical applications. Journal of Accounting, Auditing, and Finance: 337-367.
Nelson K.K., 1996. Fair Value Accounting for Commercial Banks：An Empirical Analysis of SFAS NO.107. The Accounting Review, Vol.71. No.2: 161-182.
Ohlson, J. A., 1995. Earnings, Book value, and dividends in equity valuation. Contemporary Accounting Research 11(2): 661-667.
Park, 2005. The Economic Consequences of FAS-133 for Bank Holding Companies. Bank Accounting& Finance (Octorber-November 2006): 19-26.
Sinkey., 1975. A Multivariate Statistical Analysis of the Characteristics of Problem Banks. Journal of Finance (March): 21-38.
Wang, L., P. Alam, and S. Makar, 2005. The value-relevance of derivative disclosures by commercial banks: A comprehensive study of information content under SFAS Nos.119 and 133. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting 25(4): 413-427.