本研究探討在聖多美普林西比民主共合國，經濟成長和出口、國內需求及外援的雙向關係，並依循前經濟成長領域的論文研究。本研究的目的在了解經濟成長的最佳方式，以Johansen共整合模型和Granger因果關係證實結果，且僅考慮出口和經濟成長的單向因果關係。

This study examines the casual bidirectional relationship of economic growth, exports, domestic demand, and foreign aid, counting for local differences in Sao Tome and Principe compared to previous studies in this field. The aim of this study is to find the best path for economic growth; Johansen co-integration and Granger causality test are used for empirical results, the results shows unidirectional causal relationship between economic growth and exports.

Content

Chinese Abstract      I
English Abstract       II
Acknowledgments    III
Content                     IV
Tables list                 VI
Figures List               VII

Chapter 1 – Introduction	    1

Chapter 2- Literature Review	    5
2.1 Economic growth       	    6
2.2 Export-led growth and growth-led export	                                    7
2.3 Domestic demand-led growth and growth-led domestic demand	 8
2.4 Foreign aid led-growth and growth-led foreign aid	                         9

Chapter 3 - Economic Profile of Sao Tome and Principe 	                         9

Chapter 4 – Data, Methodology	15
4.1 Data	                                    16
4.2 Research Method                          20
4.2.1	Summary of Methodology                         20
4.2.2 Model 1	                                                        20
4.2.3 Model 2	                                                        21

Chapter 5 - Empirical Results	                     22
5.1 Model 1 Results	                                             23
5.1.1 Unit root test for model 1	                      23
5.1.2 Lag Length selection	                                   25
5.1.3 Johansen cointegration test	                       25
5.1.4 Granger causality test based on VECM test	27
5.2 Model 2 Results	                                               28
5.2.1 Unit root test for model 2	                        28
5.2.2 Optimal lag order	                                    30
5.2.3 Johansen cointegration test	                        30
5.2.4 Granger Causality test based on VECM test 	31

Chapter 6 – Conclusion	                                    33

Annex	                                                                       37

References	                                                            38

Table List
Table 1 Macroeconomic indicators for Sao Tome and Principe	14
Table 2 Measurements	                                                           17
Table 3 Summary Statistics                                                              19
Table 4 ADF unit root test                                                                24
Table 5 PP test	                                                                       24
Table 6 VAR order lag length                                                           25
Table 7 Johansen cointegration test                                                   26
Table 8 VECM Test                                                                           27
Table 9 Granger causality	                                                             28
Table 10 ADF unit root test	                                                             29
Table 11 PP unit root test	                                                             29
Table 12 VAR optimal Lag order	                                                 30
Table 13 Johansen cointegration test                                                  31
Table 14 VECM test                                                                           31
Table 15 Granger Causality test based on VECM	                          32


Figure List
Figure 1 X, HC, GC and log of GDPC	                    17
Figure 2 First differences of LGDPC, X, HC, and GC     18
Figure 3 FA and log GDPC	                                            18
Figure 4 First differences of GDPC and FA  	         19

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