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系統識別號 U0002-0107201416024100
中文論文名稱 聖多美普林西比之經濟成長、出口、國內需求與外援
英文論文名稱 Exports, Domestic Demand, Foreign Aid, and Economic Growth in Sao Tome and Principe
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 財務金融學系碩士班
系所名稱(英) Department of Banking and Finance
學年度 102
學期 2
出版年 103
研究生中文姓名 史馬喬
研究生英文姓名 Mario Silva
學號 601531147
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
口試日期 2014-06-26
論文頁數 40頁
口試委員 指導教授-陳玉瓏
委員-徐子光
委員-萬哲鈺
委員-陳玉瓏
中文關鍵字 國內需求  聖多美普林西比的出口  Granger因果關係試驗 
英文關鍵字 Domestic demand  Sao Tome and Principe exports  Granger causality 
學科別分類
中文摘要 本研究探討在聖多美普林西比民主共合國,經濟成長和出口、國內需求及外援的雙向關係,並依循前經濟成長領域的論文研究。本研究的目的在了解經濟成長的最佳方式,以Johansen共整合模型和Granger因果關係證實結果,且僅考慮出口和經濟成長的單向因果關係。
英文摘要 This study examines the casual bidirectional relationship of economic growth, exports, domestic demand, and foreign aid, counting for local differences in Sao Tome and Principe compared to previous studies in this field. The aim of this study is to find the best path for economic growth; Johansen co-integration and Granger causality test are used for empirical results, the results shows unidirectional causal relationship between economic growth and exports.
論文目次 Content

Chinese Abstract I
English Abstract II
Acknowledgments III
Content IV
Tables list VI
Figures List VII

Chapter 1 – Introduction 1

Chapter 2- Literature Review 5
2.1 Economic growth 6
2.2 Export-led growth and growth-led export 7
2.3 Domestic demand-led growth and growth-led domestic demand 8
2.4 Foreign aid led-growth and growth-led foreign aid 9

Chapter 3 - Economic Profile of Sao Tome and Principe 9

Chapter 4 – Data, Methodology 15
4.1 Data 16
4.2 Research Method 20
4.2.1 Summary of Methodology 20
4.2.2 Model 1 20
4.2.3 Model 2 21

Chapter 5 - Empirical Results 22
5.1 Model 1 Results 23
5.1.1 Unit root test for model 1 23
5.1.2 Lag Length selection 25
5.1.3 Johansen cointegration test 25
5.1.4 Granger causality test based on VECM test 27
5.2 Model 2 Results 28
5.2.1 Unit root test for model 2 28
5.2.2 Optimal lag order 30
5.2.3 Johansen cointegration test 30
5.2.4 Granger Causality test based on VECM test 31

Chapter 6 – Conclusion 33

Annex 37

References 38

Table List
Table 1 Macroeconomic indicators for Sao Tome and Principe 14
Table 2 Measurements 17
Table 3 Summary Statistics 19
Table 4 ADF unit root test 24
Table 5 PP test 24
Table 6 VAR order lag length 25
Table 7 Johansen cointegration test 26
Table 8 VECM Test 27
Table 9 Granger causality 28
Table 10 ADF unit root test 29
Table 11 PP unit root test 29
Table 12 VAR optimal Lag order 30
Table 13 Johansen cointegration test 31
Table 14 VECM test 31
Table 15 Granger Causality test based on VECM 32


Figure List
Figure 1 X, HC, GC and log of GDPC 17
Figure 2 First differences of LGDPC, X, HC, and GC 18
Figure 3 FA and log GDPC 18
Figure 4 First differences of GDPC and FA 19
參考文獻 1. Anwer, Muhammad Sarfraz, and Sampath, Rajan K.. "Exports and Economic Growth". Western Agricultural Economics Association, Selected Papers of the Annual Meeting, July. 1997.

2. Asias, Tali., and Petersen, Anders. "History and economic profile of Sao Tome and Principe". 2009. http://fic.wharton.upenn.edu/fic/africa/Sao%20Tome%20Principe%20Final.pdf

3. Bank of Portugal. "Economic report of Sao Tome and Principe". 2012. http://www.bportugal.pt/pt-PT/PublicacoeseIntervencoes/Banco/Cooperacao/Publicacoes/07_STome_Txt.pdf

4. Boone, Peter. "Politics and the effectiveness of foreign aid". European economic review, 40.2: 289-329. 1996.

5. Burnside, A. Craig, and Dollar, David. "Aid, policies, and growth: revisiting the evidence". 2004.

6. Central Bank of Sao Tome and Principe. "Annual Report of Macroeconomic Profile of Sao Tome and Principe". 2001- 2012. http://www.bcstp.st/RelatoriosAnuais.aspx


7. Ekanayake, E. M., and Chatrna, Dasha. "The effect of foreign aid on economic growth in developing countries". Journal of International Business & Cultural Studies 3. 2010.

8. Feder, G. "On Exports and Economic Growth". Journal of Development Economics, 12:59-73. 1982.

9. Felipe, Jesus. "Is Export-Led Growth Passed? Implications for Developing Asia". Economic Research Department, Asian Development Bank Working Paper, No. 48. 2003.

10. Granger, C.W.J. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross Spectral Models ". Econometrica, 37(3): 424-438. 1969.

11. Granger, C.W.J. "Some Recent Development in a Concept of Causality". Journal of Econometrics, 39: 199-211. 1988.

12. Harris, Richard ID. "Testing for unit roots using the augmented Dickey-Fuller test: Some issues relating to the size, power and the lag structure of the test". Economics letters, 38.4: 381-386. 1992.

13. International Monetary Fund. "World Economic Outlook for Sao Tome and Principe". Report no 13/208. March. 2013.

14. International Monetary Fund, and World Bank. "Debt Sustainability Analysis for Democratic Republic of Sao Tome and Principe". December 30. 2011

15. Soressa, Tolcha Jarra. "Exports, domestic demand and economic growth in Ethiopia: Granger causality analysis ". Journal of Economics and International Finance, Vol.5 (9), pp. 357-372. December. 2013.

16. Johansen, S. "Statistical Analysis of Cointegrating Vectors". Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12:231-254. 1988.

17. Nacimento, Brigitt K. D. "Financas Publicas Em Sao Tome e Principe - perspectiva historica e analitica". Universidade Portugalense I.D. Henrique, Porto. 2012.

18. Palley, Thomas I. "A New Development Paradigm: Domestic Demand-Led Growth". Discussion Paper, Foreign Policy in Focus, Albuquerque, New Mexico. 2002.

19. Phillips, Peter CB, and Perron, Pierre. "Testing for a unit root in time series regression." Biometrika, 75.2: 335-346. 1988.

20. Rahmaddi, Rudy, and Ichihashi, Masaru. "Exports and economic growth: A causality analysis based on multivariate error correction model". Journal of International Development and Cooperation, 17 (2), pp. 53-74. 2011.

21. Santo, Espirito A. "Economia de S. Tome e Principe - Entre o Regime do Partido Unico e Multipartidarismo". Lisboa Edicoes Colibri. 2009.

22. Ugochukwu, Ugwuegbe S., and Chinyere, Uruakpa Peter. "The impact of export trading on economic growth in Nigeria". International Journal of Economics, Business and Finance, Vol. 1, No. 10. November. 2013.

23. Wong, Hock Tsen. "Exports, domestic demand, and economic growth in China: Granger causality analysis." Review of Development Economics, 14.3: 625-639. 2010.

24. World Economic Research. "Macroeconomic data of Sao Tome And Principe". 1970 - 2012. http://pt.kushnirs.org/macroeconomia/profile/profile_sao_tome_principe.html
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