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系統識別號 U0002-0107201323462300
中文論文名稱 台灣期貨市場當日沖銷交易、波動度、流動性 及效率性之關聯性分析
英文論文名稱 The Relationships among Day Trading , Volatility , Liquidity and Efficiency in Taiwan Futures Markets
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 財務金融學系碩士班
系所名稱(英) Department of Banking and Finance
學年度 101
學期 2
出版年 102
研究生中文姓名 李哲宇
研究生英文姓名 Che-Yu Lee
學號 600530397
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
口試日期 2013-06-23
論文頁數 81頁
口試委員 指導教授-林蒼祥
委員-蔡蒔銓
委員-周世昊
委員-林蒼祥
中文關鍵字 當日沖銷交易  波動度  流動性  效率性  向量自我迴歸模型 
英文關鍵字 day trading  volatility  liquidity  efficiency  vector autoregressive model 
學科別分類
中文摘要 本研究以台灣期貨交易所2008年1月2日至2009年9月30日的期貨資料為主,以大型台股期貨、小型台股期貨、電子期貨及金融期貨為主要研究樣本,使用向量自我迴歸模型來探討當日沖銷交易、波動度、流動性及效率性,等四種變數之間的關聯性分析,以探討本研究各種不同期貨商品之間其影響效果是否相同。
  根據本研究實證結果顯示,當日沖銷對大型台股期貨及小型台股期貨的波動度、流動性及效率性具有顯著的正面影響效果,此結果顯示當日沖銷會對期貨市場造成較大的波動,從而吸引偏好短線交易的當沖交易人進入市場。此外,愈多的當沖交易,亦會造成買賣價差縮小,造成交易人的交易成本下降,此乃因相對價差下降,從而提升市場的流動性,顯示當沖交易人偏好流動性較高的商品進行交易。當沖交易的熱絡,會造成短期價格的波動相較於長期價格波動來的劇烈,因此短時間期貨市場的流動性會越高,效率性也會提升。
  本研究亦發現在台灣期貨市場裡,在大型台股期貨、小型台股期貨、電子期貨及金融期貨裡,波動度及流動性之間存在內生關係,彼此之間具有可預測的功能,顯示前期報酬的波動提高會造成當期流動性上升,而市場若處於流動性高檔,也就是交易量大增之時,此時就會使投資人進場投資,造成擴大期貨市場波動度之功能。至於效率性,研究顯示在大型台股期貨及小型台股期貨裡,發現當日沖銷交易會造成效率性提高,至於在電子期貨及金融期貨兩種期貨商品裡,則無此情況發生。
英文摘要 In this study, the data of Taiwan Futures Exchange (TAIFEX) dated from 2008/1/2 to 2009/9/30, main TAIEX futures, small TAIEX futures, electronic futures and financial futures are the main research samples. Using Vector Autoregression to explore the relationship among day trade, volatility, liquidity and efficiency to analyze its effect is the same between four various futures commodity.
  The results show that there is a significant positive effect on the large TAIEX futures and small TAIEX futures volatility, liquidity and efficiency. It indicates that day trade will cause greater fluctuations in order to attract the preference for short-term trader to enter the market. In addition, the more day trader, the narrower the bid-ask spread, and the transaction costs decreased so as to enhance the liquidity of the market. It seems that the traders prefer the transactions which are more liquid. High volume hedge transactions will cause the severe fluctuations of short-term price compared to the long-term price. Therefore, the liquidity in short futures market will not only be higher, but also be efficiency.
  It also found that the volatility and liquidity exists endogenous relationship in large TAIEX Futures, Mini TAIEX futures, electronic futures and financial futures. Besides, from this evidence we acquired the predictable function when the early return volatility increases will cause increased current liquidity. In addition, if it exits high liquid in frequency trading market, the investors will get into the market and it will expand futures market volatility. As for efficiency, it shows that day trading in the large TAIEX futures and small TAIEX futures will increase the efficiency, but not in the electronic futures and financial futures.
論文目次 目錄
目錄 V
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究目的 3
第三節 研究架構 6
第二章 文獻探討 8
第一節 當日沖銷交易與市場波動度之相關探討 8
第二節 當日沖銷交易與市場流動性之相關探討 10
第三節 當日沖銷交易與市場效率性之相關探討 13
第三章 研究方法 15
第一節 研究資料來源與介紹 15
第二節 研究變數定義及說明 18
第三節 單根檢定 22
第四節 向量自我迴歸模型 25
第五節 因果關係、衝擊反應與變異數分解 27
第四章 實證結果與分析 34
第一節 台灣指數期貨及市場績效變數之敘述統計分析 34
第二節 台灣指數期貨及市場績效變數之單根檢定分析 36
第三節 市場績效變數間向量自我迴歸模型分析 38
第四節 市場績效變數間因果關係、衝擊反應及變異數分解分析 49
第五章 結論 75
第一節 研究結論 75
第二節 研究限制與建議 77
參考文獻 79

表目錄
【表 3-1】期貨商品內容簡介 17
【表 4-1】大型台股期貨敘述統計量(單位:%) 35
【表 4-2】小型台股期貨敘述統計量(單位:%) 36
【表 4-3】電子期貨敘述統計量(單位:%) 36
【表 4-4】金融期貨敘述統計量(單位:%) 36
【表 4-5】台灣各類期貨指數LLC單根檢定結果 37
【表 4-6】大型台股期貨、小型台股期貨IPS單根檢定結果 37
【表 4-7】電子期貨、金融期貨IPS單根檢定結果 38
【表 4-8】向量自我迴歸模型最適落後期數SIC表 39
【表 4-9】大型台股期貨向量自我迴歸實證結果 41
【表 4-10】小型台股期貨向量自我迴歸實證結果 43
【表 4-11】電子期貨向量自我迴歸實證結果 46
【表 4-12】金融期貨向量自我迴歸實證結果 48
【表 4-13】大型台股期貨因果關係實證檢定 50
【表 4 14】小型台股期貨因果關係實證檢定 51
【表 4-15】電子期貨因果關係實證檢定 52
【表 4-16】金融期貨因果關係實證檢定 53
【表 4-17】大型台股期貨變數間衝擊反應實證分析 55
【表 4-18】小型台股期貨變數間衝擊反應實證分析 58
【表 4-19】電子期貨變數間衝擊反應實證分析 61
【表 4-20】金融期貨變數間衝擊反應實證分析 64
【表 4-21】大型台股期貨變數間變異數分解實證分析 67
【表 4-22】小型台股期貨變數間變異數分解實證分析 69
【表 4-23】電子期貨變數間變異數分解實證分析 71
【表 4-24】金融期貨變數間變異數分解實證分析 73
【表 5-1】四變數之因果關係表 77

圖目錄
【圖 1-1】大型台股期貨及小型台股期貨之逐年每日平均交易量 4
【圖 1-2】電子期貨及金融期貨之逐年每日平均交易量 4
【圖 1-3】研究架構流程圖 7
【圖 4-1】大型台股期貨四變數衝擊反應分析圖 56
【圖 4-2】小型台股期貨四變數衝擊反應分析圖 59
【圖 4-3】電子期貨四變數衝擊反應分析圖 62
【圖 4-4】金融期貨四變數衝擊反應分析圖 65
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