近年來，台灣在人口結構高齡化的影響下，對一般民眾而言，長壽風險的問題日益深刻。理論上，年金保險商品一向被視為用以規避長壽風險的最佳選擇。但在現實社會中，年金保險商品的實際需求卻遠低於理論預期，而形成所謂之「年金之謎」。過去的研究結果顯示，遺產動機、年金商品之價格、未來不確定的醫療支出及社會福利制度的影響等因素是造成年金之謎的主要原因。本研究最主要是透過問卷調查，探討台灣是否有年金之謎的現象存在，以及是何種原因造成年金之謎的現象。

    本研究結果顯示:
一、我國保險市場中的確有年金之謎的現象存在。
二、性別之差異會影響到受訪者對於年金之需求。
三、「保險業務員很少(或不曾)向您推銷過年金商品」、「年金商品較壽險商品來得複雜難懂」、「預定在退休後仍繼續工作賺取生活費用」等8項因素為降低受訪者對於年金保險商品需求之因素。
四、在政府非強制規定下，願意自行參加社會保險之受訪者，會因為「擔心退休後不確定的醫療照護支出」、「退休後會想在手邊留一些流動性資產，如現金等」、「擔心保險公司會倒閉」等5項因素，而降低其對於年金保險商品之需求及購買意願。

In recent years, Taiwan under the population structure advanced age's influence, speaking of the common populace, the longevity risk's question was day by day profound. Theoretically, the annuity insurance commodity always regards as with dodges the longevity risk the best choice. But in the realistic society, the annuity insurance commodity's physical demand actually far is lower than the theory anticipated, but forms so-called it “annuity puzzle”. Of past findings showed that price, the future indefinite medical service disbursement and social welfare system's , the bequest motive, the annuity puzzle influence and so on influence create riddle of the annuity primary cause. This research most mainly penetrates the questionnaire survey, discusses Taiwan whether to have riddle of the annuity phenomenon existence, as well as is what kind of reason creates riddle of the annuity phenomenon.

The findings showed: First, in our country insurance market really has riddle of the annuity puzzle existence. Second, difference of the sex will affect the participant demand of regarding the annuity. Third, “insurance clerk to be very few (or not once) sold the annuity commodity to you”, “the annuity commodity to compare the life insurance commodity came difficult to understand”, “after the retirement continued to work earns the living expense is life scheduled” and so on those 8 factors maybe reduce the participant factor of regarding the annuity insurance commodity demand. Fourth, under the government non-compulsion stipulation, is willing to participate in participant of voluntarily the social security, because after “the worry will retire, after the indefinite medical service will look after the disbursement”, “the retirement, the meeting wants to keep some fluid property on hand, like the cash and so on”, “the worry Insurance company will go out of business” and so on 5 factors, but will reduce it demand and the purchase wish regarding the annuity insurance commodity.

第一章   緒論...........................................1
第一節   研究動機.......................................1
第二節   研究目的.......................................6
第三節   研究範圍與限制.................................7

第二章   相關背景與文獻回顧.............................9
第一節   老年經濟問題與保險商品需求.....................9
第二節   我國退休金制度與個人商業年金保險市場..........17
第三節   年金之謎......................................34

第三章   研究方法......................................39
第一節   研究架構......................................39
第二節	問卷之設計及研究變數..........................40
第三節   研究假設......................................42
第四節   問卷之發放....................................43
第五節   資料分析方法..................................45

第四章   實證結果與分析................................47
第一節   次數分配統計..................................47
第二節	樣本敘述統計量................................57
第三節   信度分析......................................64
第四節   人口基本特質對個人年金需求之差異分析與年金逆選擇現象之分析......................................66
第五節   年金之謎的認知與個人年金需求之相關分析........71
第六節   年金之謎的認知與個人參加年金意願之相關分析....77

第五章   結論與建議....................................80
第一節   結論..........................................80
第二節   建議..........................................84

參考文獻...............................................86
附錄...................................................90

圖目錄
圖1-1：各國人口老化趨勢之比較...........................1
圖1-2：出生嬰兒數與育齡婦女總生育率.....................2
圖1-3：有偶率、生育率與人口老化的三角關係...............2
圖1-4：全球人口年齡結構變遷.............................3
圖1-5：人口金字塔(中推計)...............................4
圖2-1：退休金結構 三層變五層...........................14
圖3-1：研究架構........................................39

表目錄
表1-1:人壽保險業歷年有效契約件數........................4
表2-1：退休金的三大財源................................13
表2-2:人壽保險業歷年新契約.............................16
表2-3:人壽保險業歷年新契約成長率.......................16
表2-4:勞工保險老年給付內容.............................18
表2-5:勞保新制與舊制差異比較...........................20
表2-6:公教人員保險.....................................21
表2-7:國民年金.........................................23
表2-8:我國社會保險參加人數.............................24
表2-9:勞保退休金舊制...................................25
表2-10:勞保退休金新制..................................27
表2-11:公務人員退撫制度................................27
表2-12:私立學校教職員退撫制度改革規劃方案..............28
表2-13:人壽保險業歷年有效契約件數......................31
表2-14:我國三大年金類型之比較..........................33
表3-1:我國三大主要縣市人口比例.........................44
表4-1-1:性別之次數分配表...............................47
表4-1-2:年齡之次數分配表...............................48
表4-1-3:婚姻狀況之次數分配表...........................48
表4-1-4:教育程度之次數分配.............................49
表4-1-5:子女人數之次數分配表...........................49
表4-1-6:購買過(或打算購買)年金保險商品之次數分配表.....50
表4-1-7:退休生活主要資金來源之次數分配表...............50
表4-1-8:受訪者參與之社會保險種類.......................51
表4-1-9:國民年金或月退休金是否提供足夠的退休生活保障之
次數分表.................................................51
表4-1-10:參加勞保年金或國民年金的意願之次數分配表......51
表4-1-11:曾購買年金保險商品種類之次數分配表............52
表4-1-12:購買年金保險的目的之次數分配表................53
表4-1-13:目前擁有保單種類之次數分配....................53
表4-1-14:商業年金繳費期滿後選擇保險給付方式之次數分配表.54
表4-1-15:每月收入狀況之次數分配表......................54
表4-1-16:是否擁有自用住宅之次數分配....................55
表4-1-17:目前需要負擔哪些人生活開支之次數分配表........55
表4-1-18:淨資產狀況之次數分配表........................56
表4-1-19:預期壽命之次數分配表..........................56
表4-2-1:樣本敘述統計量.................................58
表4-2-2:平均數之程度等級對照表.........................59
表4-3-1:Cronbach’s α信度與指標解釋表..................64
表4-3-2:各個構面之信度係數表...........................65
表4-4-1:人口基本特質變數對個人年金需求之差異分析表.....66
表4-4-2:性別對個人年金需求之交叉分析表.................67
表4-4-3:預期壽命對個人年金需求之交叉分析表.............68
表4-4-4:性別對預期壽命之交叉分析表.....................69
表4-4-5:各年齡層對預期壽命及實際平均餘命之比較.........70
表4-5-1:年金之謎的認知與個人年金需求之相關性分析表.....72
表4-6-1:年金之謎與個人參加年金意願之樣本統計量.........78

一、英文部分
1.Alan J. Auerbach , Laurence J. Kotlikoff , David N. Weil , “The Increasing Annuitization of the Elderly- Estimates and Implications for Intergenerational Tranfers, Inequality, and National Saving ”, NBER Working Paper No. W4182 , October 1992.
2.Jeffrey R. Brown, “Life Annuities and Uncertain Lifetimes” , NBER Reporter , MAR 2004. 3.Jeffrey R. Brown, Marcus D. Casey, Olivia S. Mitchell , “Who Values the Social Security Annuity? New Evidence on the Annuity Puzzle.” NBER Working Paper , 2007 , No. W13800.
4.Jeffery R. Brown, Mark J. Warshawsky, “Longevity-Insured Retirement Distributions from Pension Plans: Market and Regulatory Issues”, Private Pensions and Public Policies , 2004, pp.332-381.
5.Benjamin M. Friedman and Mark J. Warshawsky, “The Cost of Annuities: Implications for Saving Behavior and Bequests”,  The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 105, No. 1, Feb 1990 , pp.135-154
6.Ralph Goldsticker ,“A Mutual to Yield Annuity-Link Benefits”, Financial Analysts Journal , Jan/Feb 2007 , pp.63-67.
7.Jonathan Gardner, Mike Wadsworth, “Who Would Buy an Annuity? An Empirical Investigation”, Watson Wyatt Technical Paper, March 2004 ,No. 2004-4
8.Wei-Yin Hu & Jason S. Scott , “Behavioral Obstacles to the Annuity Market”, Financial Analysts Journal ,Nov/Dec 2007 , pp.71-82.
9.Joachim Inkmann, Paula Lopes, Alexander Michaelides ,  “How deep is the Annuity Market Participation Puzzle?” , Discussion Paper 2007 – 011 , July 2007.
10.George E. Johnson , “Some Answers to the Variable Annuity Puzzle”, Journal of Risk and Insurance , Mar 1956 , pp.47-54.
11.Richard W. Johnson, Leonard E. Burman, and Deborah I. Kobes ,  "Annuitized Wealth at Older Ages: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study". Final Report to the Employee Benefits Security Administration , U.S. Department of Labor , May 2004.
12.Lee Lockwood , “Bequest Motives and the Annuity Puzzle.” , 2008.
13.Carlos Vidal-Melia & Ana Lejarraga-Garcia , “Demand for life annuities from married couples with a bequest motive”, Journal of Pension Economics and Finance , July 2006 , pp.197-229.
14.Olivia S. Mitchell and David McCarthy  , “Estimating International Adverse Selection in Annuities”, North American Actuarial Journal 6(4):38.
15.Olivia S. Mitchell, James M. Poterba, Mark J. Warshawsky and Jeffrey R. Brown, “New Evidence on the Money's Worth of Individual Annuities”, The American Economic Review, Vol. 89, No. 5 , Dec 1999, pp.1299-1318. 
16.Moshe A Milevsky, Virginia R Young , “The timing of annuitization: Investment dominance and mortality risk” , Insurance, Mathematics & Economics , Jan 2007. Vol. 40, Iss. 1; pp.135
17.Petia Petrova , “The Annuity Puzzle Gets Bigger”,  BCCRR Working Paper , August 2004.
18.Jason S. Scott , “The Longevity Annuity: An Annuity for Everyone ?”, Financial Analysts Journal , Jan/Feb 2008 , pp.40-48.
19.Hugo Benitez-Silva ,“Dynamic life cycle models of labor supply, consumption/saving, annuities, and job search behavior with empirical applications”, Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 ,2000 , pp.192.
20.Cassio Maldonado Turra , “Living and Dying at Older Ages: Essays on The Hispanic Mortality Paradox and The Annuity Puzzle in the U.S.”,  , University of Pennsylvania , 2004 , pp.155.
21.Cassio M. Turra and Olivia S. Mitchell , “The Impact of health Status and Out-of-Pocket Medical Expenditures on Annuity Valuation”. Population Aging Research Center, University of Pennsylvania PARC Working Paper Series, 2004.
22.John Watson and Mark McNaughton, “Gender Differences in Risk Aversion and Expected Retirement Benefits”, Financial Analysts Journal , Jul/Aug 2007 , pp.52-62.
23.Menahem E Yaari,“Uncertain Lifetime, Life-Insurance, and the Theory of the Consumer”, The Review of Economic Studies , Vol. 32, No. 2, 1965 , pp.137-150.

二、中文部分
1.方明川，「商業年金保險與退休金計畫」，華泰文化。
2.甘薏湘，「強制年金廈影響個人商業年金保險需求之研究-以銀行理財客戶為例」，碩士論文，淡江大學保險經營碩士在職專班，2009年。
3.林桂蓮，「我國年金保險與退休規劃需求分析」，碩士論文，淡江大學保險經營碩士在職專班，2008年。
4.林萬億，高齡社會研究規劃成果發表會，《計畫簡介》，行政院國家科學發展學會高齡社會研究團體，2006年，pp1-11。
5.邱照軒，「高齡化社會下的保險需求」，碩士論文，淡江大學保險經營碩士班，2007年。
6.柯木興，「談社會保險年金與退休金的一些概念」，財團法人國家政策研究基金會，2001年。
7.柯木興、林建成，「淺談因應長壽社會下的個人帳戶制」，壽險季刊第133期PP.5-14。
8.柯木興、林建成，「淺談世界銀行多層次-老人經濟保障模式」，壽險季刊第137期PP.61-69。
9.洪燦楠、洪鴻銘、許仲河、蔡瓔琪，「年金保險」，財團法人保險事業發展中心。
10.陳璧瑜，「年金保險Annuity Insurance」，華立圖書。
11.繆政峰，「現行社會保險給付下影響商業年金保險意願之研究-以保險公司通路客戶為例」，碩士論文，淡江大學保險經營碩士在職專班，2009年。

三、網站部分
1.中華民國統計資訊網: http://www.stat.gov.tw/
2.中華民國內政部統計處統計資料:
http://www.moi.gov.tw/index.aspx
3.中華民國人壽保險商業同業公會網站:http://lia.roc.org.tw
4.台灣銀行:http://www.bot.com.tw/default.htm
5.全國法規資料庫: http://law.moj.gov.tw/
6.行政院主計處網站:http://www.dgbas.gov.tw/
7.行政院勞工委員會:http://www.bli.gov.tw/
8.財團法人保險事業發展中心網站:http://www.insurance.gov.tw/
9.銓敘部全球資訊網:http://www.mocs.gov.tw/