在過去四十多年裏，組織環境的議題始終吸引多數管理學者的目光。企業若要在環境中生存與成功，必須能隨環境的變化做出適時的調整與回應。尤其是在目前劇烈變動的環境下，組織回應速度相較於以往必須更有彈性，方能做出正確決策與發展正確策略。因此，唯有充份瞭解市場不確定性，方能確保企業長期生存優勢。金融服務業向來是台灣經濟發展的重要命脈。然而，過去卻鮮少針對金融市場來發展不確定性的衡量構面。
本研究乃藉由深度文獻蒐集而發展出一份53題項問卷，並以國內28家金融服務業323位從業人員為樣本，以探索性因素分析選取四個市場不確定性面向：市場態勢、市場預測、市場創新及競爭者威脅。同時也藉由集群分析將市場不確定性分為高中低三群，並分別與組織績效及專案效能等效標進行驗證。本研究發現：四個不確定性面向大致會隨著市場不確定性程度的變化而呈現反向變化(除了競爭者威脅) 。另外，組織績效與專案效能等效標亦會隨著市場不確定性的變化；其中又以組織績效的變動最為顯著。

During past four decades, the issues concerned with organization and environment have been attracting many attentions of management scholars. Under such a changeable environment, a firm needs to be equipped with right adjustment and responsiveness for success and survival. The way to ensure a company’s long-term advantages for survival is to completely know market turbulence. Though the financial services have been made great contributions to Taiwan’s economic development, past research pays little attention on them without a scale development of market turbulence. Building on extensive literature, a 53-item survey questionnaire was developed and 323 respondents from 28 domestic financial services were selected as the sample of this study. Using an exploratory factor analysis (EFA), we would retrieve four dimensions of market turbulence, including market situation, market forecasting, market innovation and competitor’s threats. Meanwhile, we would divide market turbulence into three groups by cluster analysis and further verify them with business performance as well as project efficiency.

目錄	III
表目錄	VI
圖目錄	VII
第一章 緒論	1
1.1 研究背景與動機	1
1.2 研究目的	3
1.3 研究流程	4
第二章 文獻探討	6
2.1金融環境介紹	6
2.1.1 金融服務業範疇	6
2.1.2 產值及就業人數	7
2.1.3 金融服務業的產業特性	8
2.1.4 金融服務業的SWOT分析	8
2.2 策略管理	9
2.2.1 策略管理的定義	10
2.2.2 策略管理的核心價值：環境-策略-績效	12
2.3 不確定性(uncertainty)的定義	13
2.4 風險與不確定性	15
2.5 環境不確定性與市場不確定性	16
2.5.1 環境不確定性	16
2.5.2 環境不確定性之衡量	18
2.5.3 市場不確定性	20
2.5.4 市場不確定性之衡量	22
2.5.5 環境不確定性與市場不確定性之關聯性	23
2.6 相關市場不確定性之名詞解釋	23
2.7 不確定性之角色扮演 25
2.8 市場不確定性對企業的影響 27
2.8.1 不確定性與決策行為	27
2.8.2 不確定性、組織學習與創新	27
2.8.3 不確定性、市場導向與經營績效	28
2.9 小結	29
第三章 研究方法	30
3.1 量表設計	30
3.1.1 量表編製流程	31
3.1.2 蒐集並分析相關文獻	33
3.1.3 編製市場不確定性量表初稿	35
3.2 前測	37
3.2.1 項目分析	39
3.2.2 因素分析	45
3.3 研究對象	47
3.4 資料分析方法	47
3.5 共同方法變異	49
第四章 資料分析與結果	51
4.1 樣本結構分析	51
4.2 信度分析	52
4.3 驗證性因素分析	53
4.3.1 第一階段競爭模型分析	53
4.3.2 第二階段競爭模型分析	54
4.4 效度驗證	55
4.4.1 收斂效度	55
4.4.2 區別效度	56
4.4.3 同時效度	57
4.4.4 效標關聯效度	58
4.5 背景變項分析	59
4.6 集群分析	61
4.7 理論模型建立	64
4.8 共同方法變異	65
第五章 結論與建議	66
5.1 研究結論	66
5.2 管理意涵	66
5.3 未來研究方向及建議 68
5.4 研究限制 69
參考文獻	71
中文文獻	71
網路資料	72
英文文獻	72
附錄一：專家訪談修正表 80
附錄二：前測問卷	90
附錄三：正式問卷	93

表目錄
頁次
表2-1：台灣各項服務業營收結構 7
表2-2：台灣金融服務業SWOT分析 9
表2-3：「不確定性」與「風險」的比較表 16
表2-4：環境不確定性構面一覽表 20
表2-5：重要學者之市場不確定性分類簡表 23
表2-6：常見市場不確定性名稱一覽表 24
表2-7：不確定性角色扮演一覽表 26
表3-1：「環境不確定性」與「市場不確定性」相關文章索引一覽表33
表3-2：「環境不確定性」相關文章一覽表 34
表3-3：專家訪談名單 36
表3-4：前測問卷發放對象及數量 38
表3-5：「市場不確定性」量表項目分析彙總表 40
表3-6：探索性因素分析 46
表4-1：公司基本特徵描述 51
表4-2：信度分析 52
表4-3：第一階段競爭模式比較表 54
表4-4：第二階段競爭模式比較表 55
表4-5：收斂效度分析結果表 56
表4-6：區別效度分析結果表 57
表4-7：構面相關係數表 58
表4-8：構面與效標關聯表—迴歸 59
表4-9：不同產業的因素間差異表 59
表4-10：不同產業的因素間差異表—Scheffe 60
表4-11：四個構面之集群平均數 61
表4-12：市場不確定性與效標的關係 63
圖目錄
頁次
圖1-1：研究流程圖	5
圖2-1：策略管理核心架構 11
圖2-2：市場與環境互動關聯圖 21
圖3-1：「市場不確定性」量表編製流程 32
圖4-1：「市場不確定性」與效標之理論模型 64

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