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中文論文名稱 以埃大衛營協定(1978)與以巴奧斯陸協定(1993)雙層賽局之檢證: 「衝突解決」戰略之個案研究
英文論文名稱 The Verification of Two-level Game on Camp David Agreement (1978) verse Oslo Accords (1993): The Case Study on Strategy of 「Conflict Resolution」
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 國際事務與戰略研究所博士班
系所名稱(英) Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies
學年度 108
學期 1
出版年 109
研究生中文姓名 陳建全
研究生英文姓名 Bruce C.C.Chen
電子信箱 anchen666@gmail.com
學號 896330031
學位類別 博士
語文別 中文
口試日期 2020-01-02
論文頁數 194頁
口試委員 指導教授-許智偉
共同指導教授-林中斌
委員-劉必榮
委員-翁明賢
委員-李大中
委員-莫大華
委員-許智偉
中文關鍵字 大衛營協定  奧斯陸協定  雙層賽局  國際談判  衝突解決 
英文關鍵字 Camp David Agreement (1978)  Oslo Accords (1993)  Two-level Game  International Negotiation  Conflict Resolution 
學科別分類
中文摘要 本文研究設計在於以雙層賽局主要架構來檢證以埃大衛營協定(1978)與以巴奧斯陸協定(1993),同時採用Ramsbotham (2016)提出的”擴展衝突解決” (Extended Conflict Resolution)以及”加強戰略研究”(Enhanced Strategic Studies)途徑,以戰略選擇做為調節變項,自雙層賽局是否達成一致解明衝突解決戰略的關鍵。
根據本文研究設計呈現:一方面國際談判是一國外交政策的一環,它受限於國內政經與國際政治壓力;另一方面,談判本身改變不了國際權力政治不對等關係,因而據此提出本文假設: 「國際談判是國際政治(第一層)與國內政經(第二層)互動的外交決策過程,其戰略選擇是雙層達成一致的轉化(調整及調控)過程」。依此假設,決定了衝突解決的戰略-從而呈現了本研究對相關領域與未來研究一定的參考價值。
經案例檢證,本文發現:第一,兩協定的談判過程回應了國際談判過程國內外限制,適用雙層賽局之分析與檢證,從中驗明本文假設得以成立。第二,美以關係決定了相關國際衝突的結果外,於某方面言,霸權(美)同時操控了衝突解決進度,而霸穩論所主張「霸權有利於國際體系的穩定與公益的實現」的假設於奧斯陸前置談判中不能成立。第三,兩協定皆反應了戰略選擇是內外達成一致的轉化(調整調控)過程,不同點在於以埃大衛營談判目標明確,以埃的外交戰略與內部治理是一致的,因而獲致較佳的衝突解決結果。而奧斯陸協定的衝突解決戰略的失敗則顯示不對稱談判本質外,更是國際政治與國內政經並未達成一致的結果。從而本文認為,容或權力不對等情況,如何運用重構或迴響、協同作用的聯繫等克服權力不對等與轉化雙層賽局使達成一致是衝突解決戰略的關鍵。
英文摘要 This dissertation implements Putnam’s” Two Level Game” model as the main research framework to verify Camp David Agreement (1978) verse Oslo Accords (1993), and adopts Ramsbotham’s (2016) " Extended Conflict Resolution "and “Enhanced Strategic Studies “approach to consider “strategic choice” as moderator variable to explain the key to Strategy of Conflict Resolution when states deal with the “Two-Level Game” to reach an agreement.
As the design of this study display, on the one hand, International negotiations are one part of foreign Policies of a State that can be influenced not only by domestic base, but also limited by international politics. On the other hand, negotiation, itself cannot change the unequal statue of international power politics. Thus this study puts forward assumption as follows: “International Negotiations are the diplomatic decision-making processes in which restricted by international politics (Level I) and domestic base (Level II), and the strategic choices of transformation (adjustment and fine-tuning) are the processes that strive to make level I consistent with Level II.” Accordingly to determine the implement of the” Strategy of Conflict Resolution” which display the certain reference value on related fields and future research in this study.
Through the cases verification, this thesis finds that: First, both cases respond to domestic and international restrictions in the processes of international negotiations, and are applicable to the framework of “Two-Level Game”, thus above assumptions are proved to be valid. Second, the US-Israel relationship determines the results of relevant international conflicts, in some
sense, hegemonic State controls the progress of conflict resolution. While the "Hegemonic Stability theory" asserts "Hegemonic state is conducive to the stability and welfare of the international system “cannot be assumed in Oslo prenegoniations. Third, both cases illustrate the strategic choices strive to transform their conflicts to reach agreement on “Two-Level Game” .Their differences are: in the negotiations of Camp David, the objects are clear, and the diplomatic strategies of Egypt and Israel are consistent with their domestic governance, so that it gets better results of Conflict Resolution. The failure of the conflict resolution on the Oslo Accords shows the nature of asymmetric negotiation, it is also the result of disagreement in the “Two-Level Game.” Therefore, this thesis suggests that the key to the conflict resolution strategy is how to overcome the asymmetric power to do the best adjustments and fine-tuning through the use of reverberation、reconstruction and synergistic linkages to transform the disagreements of “Two-Level Game”.
論文目次 章節目錄
第一章 緒論
第一節 本文問題意識:研究動機與目的 1
第二節 研究方法、研究途徑與限制 4
第三節 相關概念界定 10
第二章 相關文獻討論
第一節 國際衝突解決戰略研究軌跡 17
第二節 互賴、建制與國際衝突解決27
第三節 霸穩理論與國際衝突解決 30
第四節 國際談判與「衝突解決」觀 36
第五節 本論文相關官方與重要人士回憶錄摘介 43
第三章 本文分析架構與研究設計
第一節 談判與衝突解決在國際與國內政經的定位 47
第二節 雙層賽局的基本架構 52
第三節 本文研究設計 60
第四章 兩協定的國際衝突背景
第一節 前言與以阿國際衝突源起概述 67
第二節 以色列建國過程的內部政經因素 71
第三節 以阿國際衝突中美以特殊關係的形成 80
第四節 本章結語與相關大事紀 87
第五章 以埃大衛營協定的雙層賽局與檢證
第一節 以阿三十年衝突的轉折契機 93
第二節 影響當事各方初始的談判與衝突解決戰略因素 95
第三節 以埃大衛營協定的雙層賽局圖示與說明 103
第六章 以巴奧斯陸協定的雙層賽局與檢證
第一節 以巴奧斯陸協定(1993)背景概述 111
第二節 影響以巴奧斯陸談判的內外因素 114
第三節 以巴奧斯陸協定(1993)的雙層賽局圖示與說明 117
第七章 結論 兩協定研究發現與比較、未來展望
第一節 研究回顧:研究發現與比較 125
第二節展望:未來發展與後續研究 129
參考文獻 133-168
附件169-194

圖表目錄
圖目錄
圖1.1衝突的內部、相關事件性、情境脈絡理論示意圖 11
圖2.1: 新賽局理論的國際關係研究方法(A-E) 24-26
圖3.1:雙層賽局互動架構圖 57
圖3.2: 雙層賽局的補充 59
圖3.3:國際衝突解決戰略選擇之雙層賽局 60
圖3.4:限縮底線集合的效果 62
圖3.5:兩議題談判的政治無異曲線 63
圖3.6:IV、DV、Moderator 基本圖示說明 64
圖4.1中東與以色列地緣政治關係 71
圖5.1:以埃大衛營協定的雙層賽局圖示 103
圖6.1: 影響以巴奧斯陸談判雙層賽局互動架構圖 117
圖7.1 衝突解決戰略選擇: 內外達成一致的轉化(調整調控)過程 131
表目錄
表1.1:衝突解決的「戰略研究途徑」:兩者知識系統的融合學習 6
表1.2:北愛衝突的4種解讀面向(一種衝突,各自解讀) 12
表1.3:國際衝突分析的理解架構 15
表2.1:《The Journal of Conflict Resolution》中CR戰略研究軌
跡 18
表2.2:《The Journal of Conflict Resolution》中CR戰略要素 19
表2.3:邊緣策略」(Brinkmanship)示例 21
表2.4:謝林《衝突的戰略》的戰略研究內涵與批判回應 23
表2.5:傳統現實主義vs複合互賴的政治進程 28
表3.1:本論文「衝突解決戰略觀」有別其他文獻之處 51
表3.2:國際關係研究(理論)與戰略研究(動態實務)的連結 66
表4.1:《貝爾福宣言》原稿及翻譯 68
表4.2:以色列建國後五次中東戰爭(冷戰期間)簡表 70
表4.3:以色列歷任總理與歷任總統 76-78
表4.4:季辛吉送交白宮的「以色列核武計畫」備忘錄縮印 79
表4.5:聯合國與兩協議相關重要事件 88
表4.6:本論文兩協議相關大事紀 89-92
表7.1:埃以大衛營協定與以巴奧斯陸協定比較與研究發現 128
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叁、官方資料與網站:

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全球戰略預測智庫網站: https: / /www. stratfor. com /analysis /
美國和平研究所網站: http: / /iranprimer. usip. org/resource/iran -and -palestinians
以色列國土報網站: http: / /www. haaretz. com /
哈馬斯網站: http: //www. hamascharter. com /assets /
安理會決議網站:
https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/zh/content/resolutions
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